摘要
研究目标:探究全球政府扩张的地区差距及空间分布动态演进过程。研究方法:基于Dagum基尼系数分解和扩展的分布动态学模型,从地区差距和空间分布形态两方面考察2000~2018年全球政府债务扩张的空间动态演进过程。研究发现:全球政府债务扩张的空间分布存在明显的地区差距且呈上升趋势,发达国家地区内差距最大,欧盟-发展中国家地区间差距最大;在样本考察期内,除发展中国家,欧盟国家和发达国家的地区差距呈现上升趋势且发达国家逐渐形成多极化现象;空间条件下Kernel密度估计结果显示全球政府债务扩张呈现高-低空间聚集模式且存在一定的空间溢出效应,这表明空间相互作用影响着全球政府债务扩张的未来空间分布。研究创新:考虑空间效应对全球政府债务扩张分布动态演进的影响,运用扩展的分布动态学模型进行研究。研究价值:从全球视角提出了构建化解政府债务风险的长效机制的对策建议。
Research Objectives:To explore the regional gaps in global government expansion and the dynamic evolution of distribution.Research Methods:Based on the distributed dynamics model of Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition and expansion,the dynamic evolution process of global government debt expansion in 2000~2018 is investigated from the perspective of regional disparity and spatial distribution.Research Findings:The regional distribution of global government debt expansion has obvious regional disparities and is on the rise,with the largest disparities in developed regions and the largest disparities between EU and developing countries.During the sample survey period,except developing countries,EU countries and developed countries,The regional disparity in China is on the rise,and developed countries are gradually forming a multi-polar phenomenon;Kernel density estimates under spatial conditions show that the global government debt expansion presents a high-low spatial aggregation pattern and there is a certain spatial spillover effect,which indicates the impact of spatial interaction The future spatial distribution of global government debt expansion.Research Innovations:Considering the impact of spatial effects on the dynamic evolution of global government debt expansion,the extended distributed dynamics model is used for research.Research value:According to this,from the global perspective,the countermeasures and suggestions for constructing a long-term mechanism to resolve the government debt risk are proposed.
作者
沈丽
刘媛
Shen Li;Liu Yuan(School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economic)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第5期139-155,共17页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“新常态初期区域金融风险生成机理及防控对策研究”(16BGL052)的资助。
关键词
政府债务扩张
地区差距
分布动态演进
协同治理
Government Debt Expansion
Regional Disparity
Dynamic Evolution of Distribution
Collaborative Governance
