摘要
选取1978-2019年海南省GDP数据为研究样本,依据Box-Jenkins方法建立ARIMA模型,通过1978-2017年样本内数据建立ARIMA(1,1,2)模型,来预测2018-2021年样本外的海南省GDP数值。通过对模型诊断与检验,发现ARIMA(1,1,2)模型能较好地达到预测效果,预测平均误差控制在5%之内,能较好地对海南省GDP做出短期预测,为海南省政府制定经济发展目标提供参考。
This paper selects the GDP data of Hainan Province from 1978 to 2019 as the research sample, establishes ARIMA model based on box-Jenkins method, and forecasts the GDP value of Hainan province outside the sample from 2018 to 2021 by establishing ARIMA(1,1,2) model. Through the diagnosis and test of the model, it is found that ARIMA(1,1,2) model can better achieve the prediction effect, the average error of prediction is controlled within 5%, and it can make a short-term prediction of GDP of Hainan Province, which provides a reference for the government of Hainan Province to formulate economic development goals.
作者
王爽
汪海飞
Wang Shuang;Wang Haifei(University of Sanya,School of Economics,Hainan Sanya 572022)
出处
《对外经贸》
2020年第4期44-46,共3页
FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE
基金
海南省工商管理省级特色重点学科建设项目阶段性成果
海南省哲学社会科学2019年规划课题成果(项目编号:HNSK(QN)19-62)。
