摘要
文章在GARCH模型的基础上,提取了2013年至2019年不同体育行业代表股票的日收益波动值做因果关系的联动性检验,发现同行业股票内的联动性较弱,但体育行业间股票收益波动的联动性较强。其中,体育赛事对体育用品,对体育旅游的长期均衡影响力度较大,影响系数分别为1.46和1.08。各行业间的长期协整方程对其短期模型的修正力度显著,其中体育竞赛表演和体育用品行业的长期协整方程对体育用品业修正速度最快(0.21),其次是体育健身设施建设和体育中介的长期协整方程对体育健身设施建设业的修正速度,达到0.14。其余的修正速度均较慢。长期协整方程和短期修正模型均反映出我国以体育竞赛表演为核心的体育产业链正在逐步发展成熟,体育赛事经济也是未来城市经济新的增长点。
Based on the GARCH model,the daily return volatility values of representative stocks from different sports industries are extracted in the paper from 2013 to 2019 for the correlation test of causality.It is found that the correlation among stocks of the same industry is weak,but the correlation among stock return volatility of sports industries is strong.Among them,the impact of sports events on sporting goods and sports events on the long-term equilibrium of sports tourism is relatively strong,and the impact coefficients are 1.46 and 1.08 respectively.The long-term co-integration equation among different industries has a significant correction on its short-term model,among which the long-term co-integration equation of sports competition performance and sports goods industry has the fastest correction speed on sports goods industry(0.21),followed by the long-term cointegration equation of sports fitness facilities construction and sports intermediary,which has a correction speed of 0.14.The rest are slower to correct.Both the long-term cointegration equation and the short-term correction model reflect that China's sports industry chain with sports competition and performance as the core is gradually developing and becoming mature,and sports event economy is also a new growth point of urban economy in the future.
作者
张蕾
汪志刚
ZHANG Lei;WANG Zhi-gang(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan Sports University,Wuhan Hubei 430079,China)
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2020年第6期103-107,共5页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
体育总局社会科学研究项目(2312SS16049)。
关键词
产业链
产业股票
收益波动
联动性
Industrial chain
Industrial stock
Income fluctuation
Linkage
