摘要
通勤出行是城市居民最基本和最重要的出行目的,通勤出行时间价值是评价通勤出行者对交通方式选择的重要参数之一,以累积前景理论为基础,将通勤出行时间价值引入广义出行成本函数中,以权重函数和改进的广义出行成本函数作为交通方式选择模型的依据,并在模型中自定义广义出行成本参考点,选择累积前景值最大的前景作为出行者最优决策。分别基于“期望效用最大化理论”和“累积前景理论”对通勤出行者在三种不同出行场景下进行仿真模拟,研究最优交通方式选择行为。研究结果表明:期望效用理论框架下,通勤出行者的交通方式选择行为不受出行场景的影响,累积前景理论更适用于出行方式选择行为的研究。构建以通勤出行时间价值为核心变量的交通方式选择模型,可帮助通勤出行者选择合理的交通方式,并为政府及相关部门制定交通管理规划和实施缓解交通拥堵政策提供依据。
In recent years,the rapid development of the economy has made the construction of transportation infrastructure by leaps and bounds.The problem of the mismatch between supply and demand of urban transportation resources leads to the increasingly serious traffic congestion in cities,and the accurate description of the selection behavior of travelers'path is an important prerequisite for alleviating traffic congestion.The traditional commuting travel mode selection behavior research,based on"the homogeneity"hypothesis,chooses the prospect of maximum expected utility as the optimal travel decision and meets"the heterogeneity"hypothesis in real life.For example,"Alize"And"Elsberg's Paradox"prove that the trip behavior and the"expected utility theory"deviate from each other.Based on the"heterogeneity"hypothesis,which is the traveler is not completely rational under the uncertain travel prospects and travels on commuting,this paper studies the behavior of commuting.Accumulated prospect theory is a decision model that describes imperfect rational decision-makers under uncertain conditions.“Heterogeneity”is consistent with cumulative prospect theory.Therefore,based on the cumulative prospect theory,The value of commuting time is one of the important parameters to evaluate the choice of transportation mode by commuters,and the parameter is used to improve the generalized travel cost function.The weight function and the improved generalized travel cost function are the basis of traffic mode and can customize the generalized travel cost in the model reference points,and calculate the cumulative prospect value.Finally,the foreground of the maximum value is selected as the optimal decision foreground for commuters.On the micro-level,based on"expected utility theory"and"cumulative prospect theory,"this paper analyzes how commuting travelers can choose the best mode of transportation in three different travel scenarios.Simulation results show that under the framework of expected utility theory,the mode of transportation of commuters is not affected by the travel scene;Under the framework of the cumulative prospect theory,the choice result is not exactly consistent with the selection result under the framework of expected utility theory due to the difference of the generalized cost reference value.Under the fixed travel distance,when the traveler has a long expectation of travel time,it is shown as risk aversion,which will favor the less risky and more reliable mode of transportation,such as subway travel.When travelers expect shorter travel times,because commuters are more sensitive to losses,they tend to prefer risky modes of transportation,such as self-driving travel.In summary,the cumulative prospect theory is more applicable to the study of commuting travel mode choice behaviors,and constructs a transportation mode selection model with accumulated prospect theory based on the commuting travel time value as the core variable,to help travelers choose a reasonable mode of transportation for the government and related departments to formulate traffic management plans and implement policies to ease traffic congestion.
作者
宗刚
曾庆华
魏素豪
ZONG Gang;ZENG Qinghua;WEI Suhao(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;School of Agriculture Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《管理工程学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期142-150,共9页
Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(15BJY048)。
关键词
通勤出行
时间价值
交通方式
累积前景理论
Commuter travel
Time value
Transportation mode
Cumulative prospect theory
