摘要
利用2007-2018年30个省级行政区(除西藏外)的面板数据,在分析人口老龄化、房价以及住房空置率三者传导机制的基础上,实证研究人口老龄化和房价对住房空置率的影响。结果表明在全国层面上,人口老龄化和房价均对住房空置率有正向影响;在区域层面上,中部地区人口老龄化对住房空置率的影响最大,各区域房价对住房空置率的影响均为正向影响;中介效应表明,房价确实是人口老龄化影响住房空置率的中间桥梁。
At present,China is facing an accelerated phase of population aging,which has a series of problems in the housing market by affecting the age structure of the population.Based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions(excluding Tibet)from 2007 to 2018,this paper empirically studies the aging of the population and the housing vacancy rate based on an analysis of the three mechanisms of population aging,housing prices and housing vacancy rate.The results show that at the national level,population aging and housing prices have a positive impact on housing vacancy rate;at the regional level,population aging in the central region has the greatest impact on housing vacancy rate,and the impact of housing prices on housing vacancy rate is positive in all regions;the mediation effect indicates that house prices are indeed the middle bridge between the aging of the population and the housing vacancy rate.
作者
周建军
马雪晴
贾丽娜
ZHOU Jian-jun;MA Xue-qing;JIA Li-na(Business School, Xiangtan University, Xiangtan 411105,China)
出处
《湖南大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期78-87,共10页
Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目:人口老龄化、住房空置与房地产金融风险控制——基于异质空间DSGE模型分析(71873117)
湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题重大项目:新形势下湖南投资增长点探索研究(XSP18ZDA003)。
关键词
人口老龄化
房价
住房空置率
中介效应
Population ageing
Housing prices
Housing vacancy rate
Mediating effect
