摘要
人口迁移流动是改变人口数量和人力资本空间分布格局的重要因素,人口迁移流动造成的人口数量和人力资本空间分布变化是否一致及其对区域经济社会发展的影响是一个需要更加深入研究的问题。本文针对我国人口流动过程中形成的人口素质结构转变进行理论思考和实证研究,探讨其形成的经济原因和造成的经济影响。相关数据显示我国高等教育群体和中等教育及以下群体长期以来一直处于净流向相同的状态,而2013-2015年以来各省陆续出现净流向相反的现象,形成了人口数量和人口素质的替代效应。高等教育人才的净流入地区是经济发达省份、地理条件优越省份以及少数民族自治区,北京、天津、上海、浙江、江苏以及广东省等三大都市圈内的六个省市的高等教育净流入人才占跨省高等教育净流入总人口的绝大多数。人口替代对当地的经济影响表现为三点:第一,改变当地劳动力资源禀赋结构,使高等教育群体及中等教育群体人数的比较优势发生变化;第二,改变地区平均受教育年限,影响地区科技创新能力;第三,拉大地区劳动力收入差距。据此提出两点政策建议:首先,地方省市可以通过市场化的产业结构调整手段控制相应的流动人口群体规模,而不必依靠限制人口流动的政策以及硬性提出人口调控目标来管理流动人口规模。其次,地方政府要做好地区经济规划以及定位,充分认识现在的人口替代对于未来地区创新能力以及劳动力收入差距的影响。
Migration is an important factor to change the spatial distribution pattern of population and human capital,but whether the changes of population and spatial distribution of human capital caused by migration are consistent,and its impact on regional economic and social development,is a need for more in-depth study. This paper makes a theoretical and empirical study on the transformation of population quality structure in the process of migration,and discusses the economic reasons and impacts of the formation. Relevant data shows that higher education groups and secondary education and the following groups have been in the same state of net flow for a long time. However,since 2013-2015,the net flow has been opposite in some provinces,forming the substitution effect of population quantity and quality. The destination areas of higher education talents are economically developed provinces with superior geographical conditions and autonomous regions of ethnic minorities. The net inflow of higher education talents in six provinces and cities within the three metropolitan areas of Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Guangdong accounts for the majority. The impact is shown in three aspects:firstly,the structure of local labor resources is changed,as well as the comparative advantage of the number of higher education groups and secondary education groups. Secondly,the average number of years of education in the region is changed,furtherly the regional scientific and technological innovation ability is affected. Thirdly,the regional labor income gap is widened. Therefore,two policies are put forward according to the above:first,local government should control the scale of floating population groups by means of market-oriented industrial structure adjustment,instead of relying on the policy of restricting migrant and the rigid population regulation goal to manage the scale of floating population. Second,the local government should do a good job in regional economic planning and positioning,fully understand the impact of population substitution on the future regional innovation ability and labor income gap.
作者
王胜今
秦芳菊
陈世坤
WANG Shengjin;QIN fangju;CHEN Shikun(Center for Northeast Asian Sudies,Jilin Universitny,Chnngchur Jilin,130012,China)
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期39-50,共12页
Population Journal
关键词
人口替代
人口迁移
人口流动
区域经济发展
Population Substitution
Migration,Floating Population
Regional Economic and Development
