摘要
新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)从2020年1月下旬开始大规模爆发,COVID-19动力学建模的相关报道认为建立合适的数据收集体系并科学处理海量的信息对于疫情控制非常重要。不论是从理论上还是在实践中,该类非线性流行性疾病的传播和治疗都受到多种因素、多个层面以及不同防控措施的影响。在确证了存在"人传人"的传播途径之后,分析武汉"封城"后1~40 d我国以及全球疫情大爆发初期的感染人群数据确诊病例和新增病例的数据变化规律。我国迅速采取了"封城""隔离"和"带口罩"等控制病毒传播的措施,并取得阶段性成功。为科学判定传染病危害程度,提出简化的"传播相"和"处置相"的"二房室"模型,并基于国内和国际疫情数据予以分析。病毒传播速度研究传播爆发期的动力学分析对控制疫情爆发更具有实际意义。全球防疫咨询中心和世界卫生组织(WHO)的总确诊人数和现有确诊人数的传播速率(Kt)和倍增时间(tt2/1)基本变化不大。研究发现全球传播tt2/1均明显短于我国的6.27~7.02 d,表明全球的传播速率明显高于我国。注意到意大利、西班牙和伊朗3个国家总确诊人数的Kt、tt2/1和死亡率均与全球数据有明显差异。特别是死亡率明显高于全球水平,分别为9.57%、6.59%、7.86%,约为全球的2倍,是我国的3倍。因此,研究认为处理好传播途径和控制传播速率是关键。
Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) on a large scale in late January 2020, the relevant reports of COVID-19 dynamics modeling found that it was very important to establish an appropriate data collection system and scientifically deal with massive information for epidemic control. No matter in theory or in practice, the transmission and treatment of virus infected persons with the kind of nonlinear epidemic diseases are affected by various factors, multiple levels, and different prevention and control measures. After confirming the transmission route of "human-to-human transmission", the data change rules of confirmed cases and new cases of infectious population in China and in the early stage of the outbreak 1 - 40 d after the closure of Wuhan were analyzed. China has quickly adopted measures to control the spread of the virus, such as "city closure", "isolation", and "wearing masks", and has achieved phased success. In order to scientifically determine the degree of harm of infectious diseases, a simplified "two-compartment" model of "transmission phase" and "disposition phase" is proposed and analyzed based on domestic and international epidemic data. It is more practical to study the speed of virus transmission and the dynamics analysis to control the outbreak. According to data from the Global Epidemic Prevention Consulting Center and WHO, the growth rate(Kt) and doubling time(tt2/1) of the total number of confirmed cases and the number of confirmed cases from the two sources have little change. The study found that the global propagation doubling time is significantly shorter than 6.27 - 7.02 d in China, indicating that the global propagation rate is significantly higher than that in China. Kt, tt2/1, and mortality rate of the total number of confirmed cases in Italy, Spain, and Iran are obviously different from the global data. The special mortality rate is significantly higher than the global level, with 9.57%, 6.59%, and 7.86%, respectively, which is almost twice that of the world. Therefore, the study believes that it is the key to deal with the transmission pathway and control of the transmission rate.
作者
刘昌孝
王玉丽
张洪兵
武卫党
LIU Chang-Xiao;WANG Yu-Li;ZHANG Hong-Bing;WU Wei-Dang(State Key Laboratory of Drug Delivery Technology and Pharmacokinetics,Tianjin Institute of Pharmaceutical Research,Tianjin 300462,China;Tianjin Binhai Research Center for Food and Drug Regulatory Science,Tianjin 300462,China;School of Chemical Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)
出处
《现代药物与临床》
CAS
2020年第4期597-606,共10页
Drugs & Clinic
