摘要
由于保守党在2019年英国大选中取得压倒性胜利,英国将在2020年1月底正式脱欧,这为中英两国建立双边自由贸易区(FTA)带来了机遇,那么中英两国建设FTA是否具有可行性及建立FTA的影响如何呢?文章通过测算中英之间的出口相似度、显示性比较优势及贸易结合度,分析两国贸易产品的紧密度、竞争性和互补性。通过构建异质性国际贸易模型,测算了中英建立FTA对两国福利的影响。研究表明:中英两国产品的出口相似度下降、贸易结合度上升,贸易互补性较强;建立双边FTA都促进了两国福利的增长,且对英国福利的改善作用更显著,两国福利的改善主要分别来源于中间投入品和最终品的关税下降。因此,中英建立FTA符合双方利益,具有较强的可行性。中国应抓住英国脱欧的契机,实时启动中英双边FTA谈判,推动"一带一路"建设的深化升级。
As the Conservative Party won a landslide victory in the British general election in 2019, the UK will officially leave Europe by the end of January 2020, which brings opportunities for China and the UK to establish a bilateral free trade area(FTA). So is it feasible for China and the UK to build FTA and what is the impact of establishing FTA? By measuring the export similarity, display comparative advantage and trade combination between China and the UK, this paper analyzes the closeness, competitiveness and complementarity of trade products between the two countries. By constructing a heterogeneous international trade model, this paper measures the impact of FTA on the welfare of the two countries. The results show that the export similarity, trade combination and trade complementarity of the two countries’ products decrease, and the establishment of bilateral FTA promote the growth of the welfare of the two countries, and the improvement of the welfare of the United Kingdom is more significant. The improvement of the welfare of the two countries mainly comes from the reduction of the tariff of the intermediate inputs and the final products. Therefore, the establishment of FTA between China and the UK is in line with the interests of both sides and has strong feasibility. China should seize the opportunity of brexit, launch bilateral FTA negotiations in real time, and promote the deepening and upgrading of the "belt and road" construction.
作者
赵青松
祝学军
ZHAO Qing-song;ZHU Xue-jun
出处
《经济论坛》
2020年第2期87-96,共10页
Economic Forum
基金
2017年国家社会科学基金西部项目“以区域自由贸易区建设推动丝绸之路经济带深化升级研究”(17XGJ010)
新疆自然科学基金项目(2019D01A24)。
关键词
中英自由贸易区
可行性
异质性国际贸易模型
福利效应
China-UK FTA
Trade competitiveness and complementary
Heterogeneous international trade model
Welfare effect
