摘要
采用空间计量经济学方法就我国省份电力消费需求的空间相关性及其驱动因素进行了实证分析.全域Moran指数揭示了我国省域电力消费需求的正向空间相关性,Moran散点图的变化展示了不同省域电力消费具有"路径依赖"特征.进一步的空间面板模型的估计结果不仅再次肯定了省域电力消费需求的空间相关性,而且证实了经济规模、人口规模和对外贸易对电力消费需求的增强效应以及技术进步与产业结构的优化调整对电力消费需求的节制作用.上述结论意味着依靠技术进步和产业结构优化调整才是实现经济增长和节电减耗双重目标的最佳选择.
This paper uses the spatial econometric methods to analysis the spatial dependence of electricity consumption and its influencing factors in China.Global Moran’s indexes reveal the spatial correlation characteristics of Chinese provincial electricity consumption,and the Moran scatter graphs show the characteristic of "path dependence" of electricity consumption in different provinces.The estimating results of spatial panel model not only reaffirm the spatial correlation of provincial electricity consumption but also confirm that the promotion effect of economic size,population size and foreign trade and demotion effect of technology progress and industry structure adjustment to electricity consumption.The above conclusions imply that the optimal choice of economic growth and power consumption reduction can be achieved through the optimization of technological progress and industrial structure.
作者
郭丽平
周洁
徐建军
GUO Li-ping;ZHOU Jie;XU Jian-jun(State Grid Zhejiang Yuyao Power Supply Co.Ltd,Yuyao 315400,China;Institute of Science and Technology Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2020年第8期57-66,共10页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(16YJCZH124,17YJCZH218)
浙江省高校重大人文社科攻关计划项目(2016QN005)
国网浙江余姚市供电公司项目(HX180008)。
关键词
电力消费
空间相关
空间权重
空间计量经济学
electricity consumption
spatial dependence
spatial weights
spatial econometric
