摘要
采用鄱阳湖流域13个气象站点1958-2018年的气象资料,计算不同时间尺度标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI),结合M-K检验、小波分析方法、经验正交函数分解(EOF)和干旱评价指标等方法,分析了鄱阳湖流域61年来干旱的演变趋势和周期变化规律,讨论了干旱特征与多变量ENSO指数(MEI)的关系。结果表明:SPEI年际变化在1967年发生突变,由干转湿,春季整体干旱趋势最显著,夏季次之,秋、冬两季仅在局部地区有干旱趋势;流域干旱强度呈不明显轻微上升趋势,主要以轻旱和中旱为主,干旱发生范围主要是全流域干旱与局部性干旱;EOF结果表明第一空间模态干旱变化在空间分布上具有一致性的干旱的情况,第二空间模态以28°N为分界,由南向北呈纬向分布逐渐增加;小波分析的结果表明鄱阳湖流域26~32年尺度范围内存在着干-湿-干交替的周期变化,MEI在1977年和1999年发生冷暖位相的相互转变,MEI、降水、气温年际变化整体呈现冷-暖-冷趋势;MEI和SPEI存在正相关关系,即MEI暖相位时,存在湿润趋势,反之则出现干旱。
The meteorological data of 13 meteorological stations in Poyang Lake Basin from 1958 to 2018 are used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) at different time scales. Based on MK test, wavelet analysis method, empirical orthogonal function decomposition(EOF) and drought evaluation index, the trend and periodic variation of drought in the Poyang Lake Basin in the past 61 years are analyzed, and the relationship between drought characteristics and multivariate ENSO index(MEI) is discussed. The results show that the inter-annual variation of SPEI changed in 1967, from dry to wet, the overall drought trend in spring is the most significant, followed by summer, autumn and winter. There is a drought trend in some areas;the drought intensity of the basin is not significantly increased, mainly in light and moderate droughts, and the drought is mainly caused by drought and local drought in the whole basin. EOF results indicate drought of the first spatial mode has the same spatial distribution. The second spatial mode is bounded by 28°N, and the zonal distribution increases gradually from south to north. The results of wavelet analysis indicate that the Poyang Lake Basin has a memory range of 26~32 years. In the cyclical change of dry-wet-dry alternating,MEI changed the cold and warm phase in 1977 and 1999.The MEI,precipitation and inter-annual variation of temperature shows a cold-warm-cold trend overall. MEI and SPEI has a positive correlation. When the MEI is warm,there is a tendency to wet,and vice versa.
作者
刘卫林
朱圣男
刘丽娜
万一帆
黄一鹏
LIU Wei-lin;ZHU Sheng-nan;LIU Li-na;WAN Yi-fan;HUANG Yi-peng(Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrology,Water Resources and Water Environment,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2020年第4期116-123,128,共9页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ170980)
江西省优势科技创新团队建设计划项目(20171BCB24012)
国家自然科学基金项目(51309130)
江西省科技厅科技计划项目(20192BAB206047)
南昌工程学院研究生创新基金项目(YJSCX2018006)。
