摘要
利用天津市某区2017年逐日、2017年7月逐时供水资料和气象资料,分析日、时供水量的变化特征及其与气象因子的关系,建立基于气象因子的日供水量预测模型。结果表明:夏季供水量最多,秋季、春季的次之,冬季的最少;日供水量存在明显的节假日效应,特别是在春节长假期间供水量下降明显。分析日供水量与气象因子的相关系数发现,除冬季外,日供水量与气温相关性较高,与其他气象因子相关系数季节差异明显。7月供水时变化特征主要受居民工作生活习惯影响,同一时次的供水量与蒸发量、相对湿度和整点气温相关性较高,但有明显的滞后性,13时的气象条件对全天总供水量影响较大。综合以上分析结论,建立多元回归日供水量预测模型。模型预测结果平均误差为1.48%,可作为日供水量预测参考依据。
Based on the daily(2017)and hourly(July 2017)water supply data and meteorological data of some district in Tianjin,the variation characteristics of daily and hourly water supply and its relationship with meteorological factors are analyzed,and the daily water supply forecasting model based on meteorological factors is established.The results show that the water supply in summer is the most,followed by autumn and spring,and the least is in winter.The daily water supply has obvious holiday effects,and especially during the Spring Festival the water supply decreases significantly.Analysis of the correlation coefficient between daily water supply and meteorological factors revealed that,except winter,the daily water supply is strongly correlated with temperature,and the correlation coefficients with other meteorological factors are seasonally different.The change characteristics of water supply in July are mainly affected by residents’work and living habits.The water supply at the same time is related to evaporation,relative humidity,hourly temperature and sunshine intensity,but there is obvious hysteresis.The meteorological conditions at 13 o’clock have the most significant effects on the daily total water supply.Based on the above analysis results,a multivariate regression daily water supply prediction model is established.The average error of the model prediction is 1.48%,which can be used as a reference for daily water supply forecasting.
作者
孙玫玲
兰辉
左晓辰
施银焕
Sun Meiling;Lan Hui;Zuo Xiaochen;Shi Yinhuan(Tianjin Meteorological Service Center,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Water Supplies Group Co.LTD,Tianjin 300040,China)
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2020年第2期21-25,共5页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
基金
天津市气象局2018年重点科研项目”天津夏季城市供水气象服务技术研究”(201817zdxm02)。
关键词
供水量
气象因子
相关系数
预测模型
water supply
meteorological factor
correlation coefficient
prediction model
