摘要
本文利用2001至2013年中国三大棉花主产区等16个省份的面板数据,基于棉花产量、价格指数和生产成本等指标,运用Nerlove模型对中国棉花供给反应弹性进行测度。研究发现:长江流域棉区,前1期棉花平均出售价格对棉花供给反应的影响最大;黄河流域棉区,当期棉花产量的波动对棉花供给反应最敏感;全国市场,前1期棉花播种面积对棉花供给反应的影响最强烈,显著大于当期棉花产量的弹性和前1期棉花投入变量的弹性。本文建议政府应通过播种面积(产量)控制、价格预警、投入成本控制以及农业保险等措施,保障棉花产业的健康发展,刺激棉农生产积极性。
Based on indicators such as cotton production,prices and production costs,the panel data of 16 provinces that belong to three major cotton producing areas of China in 2001~2013 were selected to measure the elasticity of China's cotton supply response by using Nerlove model.Results showed that in Yangtze River cotton areas,average sale price of cotton in prestage 1 had the greatest impact on cotton supply response.In Yellow River cotton region,fluctuations in current cotton production were mostly sensitive to cotton supply reactions.In national market,the effect of cotton seeding area in prestage 1 on cotton supply was the most strong,which was significantly greater than the elasticity of cotton yield in the current period and the elasticity of the cotton yield of the prestage 1 cotton input variable.This paper recommended that the government should adopt acreage(production)command,price,and cost control measures such as agricultural insurance,the guarantees for healthy development of the cotton industry,to stimulate the enthusiasm of cotton farmers.
作者
李先梅
LI Xianmei(School of Economicsand Business,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi Xinjiang,830052,China)
出处
《高原农业》
2020年第3期322-330,共9页
Journal of Plateau Agriculture
基金
国家社科基金“供给侧结构性改革下南疆棉农生产性服务供给路径研究(17CGL028)”。
