摘要
基于历史文献中的饥荒记载,提取1736-1911年176年华北境内饥荒事件2 950县次,根据饥荒严重程度等级,以加权平均法重建逐年饥荒指数序列,将其与同期气候变化、水旱灾害和粮食收成情况进行时空对比,结论如下:温度、降水与歉收、饥荒呈显著负相关,旱灾与歉收、饥荒的相关关系较水灾更为显著;回归分析显示歉收和饥荒对于旱灾的敏感性随清朝统治的衰落急剧上升,反映有效的社会应对有利于减少歉收和饥荒发生;核密度分析显示饥荒多发区主要分布在汾河谷地、河南中南部以及冀鲁豫交界处,与旱灾、歉收的空间对应关系较好,但河南中南部饥荒多发还可能与当地特殊的社会经济脆弱性有关。研究有助于深化对历史时期气候变化社会经济影响机制的科学认识,未来应进一步探讨历史饥荒的发生机制,并完善气候变化影响在社会系统中的传递路径。
Based on records on famine kept in historical documents,2950 famine events counted with "county time" in North China during 1736-1911 were collected,and annual famine index series in North China was reconstructed using weighted average method according to the severity of famine. Spatio-temporal distribution of famine and its relationship with climate,disaster and harvest was analyzed. The research shows that variation of temperature and precipitation has significant negative correlation with poor harvest and famine.The drought has a more significant correlation with harvest and famine than flood. In 1736-1795 when was at the peak of the Qing dynasty,the sensitivity of poor harvest and famine to drought was significantly lower than in1796-1911 when was in decline,because effective social response to disaster could reduce the risk of poor harvest and famine. Using the kernel density estimation method,three main high risk areas of famine were indentified:Fen River Valley in south Shanxi Province,south-central He’nan Province,and the junction of Hebei,Shandong and He’nan Province. In general,there is significant corresponding relationship between the spatial distribution of drought,poor harvest and famine,however,abnormally high probability of famine in south-central He’nan Province might be related to local special socio-economic vulnerability. This study would enhance our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and socioeconomic system.Further research would focus on the mechanism by which famine originated in the past,and the pathway through which climatic impacts were delivered in human society.
作者
萧凌波
Xiao Lingbo(Institute of Qing History,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第5期478-487,共10页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“气候变化、极端灾害对清代华北粮食安全的影响及其时空差异分析”(编号:41501207)
“极端气候事件信息传播激发社会系统‘转入—转出’的案例分析”(编号:41771572)资助.
关键词
历史气候变化
水旱灾害
粮食收成
饥荒
时空分布
华北
Historical climate change
Flood/drought
Grain harvest
Famine
Spatio-temporal distribution
North China
