摘要
文章采用31省市2006—2015年面板数据,建立空间计量模型,研究了中国跨省人口净流入与相对经济发展水平之间的非线性关系。研究表明:人口净流入与相对经济发展水平具有显著的空间外溢性。从全国来看,人口净流入与相对经济发展水平之间存在先上升后下降的倒U型关系,且除北京、天津和上海三市外,其余省市均位于拐点的左侧,表明经历了人口大规模流入阶段之后,北京、天津和上海三市逐步进入人口逆城市化的流出阶段,而其余省市仍处于人口净流入与相对经济发展水平正相关的阶段,持续提升相对经济发展水平,是吸引人口迁入的重要因素。分区域来看,相对经济发展水平对人口净流入的影响具有异质性,在东部和中部地区,二者关系依然呈倒U型,且拐点与全国模型的差异很小;在西部地区,二者关系呈正U型。据此,进一步将二者关系划分为流失期、抑制期、虹吸期和结构调整期这四个时期。另外,城镇登记失业率对人口净流入有负效应,平均受教育水平和第三产业占GDP比例的上升则对人口净流入有正效应。
This study establishes the spatial econometric model and investigates the nonlinear relation between population net inflow and the relative economic development of the provinces in China with the help of the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2006 to 2015.The results show that there is a significant spatial spillover effect between net population inflow and economic development,and in the whole country,there is an inverted U type relationship between the two.Apart from Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai,the rest of provinces and cities are located on the left side of the inflection point of this U type.In different regions,the impact of relative economic development on the net inflow of population is heterogeneous.It is still an inverted U type and shares similar inflection point with the national model in eastern and central regions.However,it is a positive U curve in western region.Therefore,the relation between economic growth and labor migration can be further divided into four periods:drainage period,inhibition period,siphon period and structural adjustment period.The registered urban unemployment rate has negative effects on the net population inflow,while the average education level and the proportion of the third industry to GDP have positive effects on it.
作者
杨未然
刘金典
程名望
YANG Wei-ran;LIU Jin-dian;CHENG Ming-wang(School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200093)
出处
《江南大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
2020年第3期29-39,共11页
Journal of Jiangnan University：Humanities & Social Sciences Edition
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(15JZD026)
国家自然科学基金项目(71673200,71873095)。
关键词
相对经济发展
人口净流入
空间计量模型
溢出效应
relative economic development
net population inflow
spatial econometric model
spillover effect
