摘要
学界普遍认为,“欧佩克+”机制是美国“页岩革命”后俄罗斯和沙特避免长期低油价、提升对石油市场控制力的应对措施。本文认为,美国重新以主要石油生产国的身份回归国际能源舞台,以及由此对其能源权力带来的“倍增效应”,才是促使“欧佩克+”机制建立的主要因素。俄罗斯和沙特通过该机制重拾了对石油市场的控制,并为双方进一步合作奠定了基础,从而改善了地缘政治环境。作为回应,美国则在提升自身石油生产能力的同时,尽可能通过政治手段对“欧佩克+”进行分化。俄罗斯退出“欧佩克+”机制与新一轮石油价格战的爆发表明,随着主要产油国数量的上升,能源博弈中的互动与冲突也在不断增加。在新的三极石油供应体系中,沙特拥有更大的战略选择空间,其战略选择也将成为左右国际能源格局的关键因素。
It is generally believed that OPEC + mechanism is the product of Russia and Saudi Arabia preventing the continuous downturn of international oil price and increasing their control over the oil market since the U. S. ‘Shale Revolution ’. This paper argues that the return of the United States to the international oil arena as a major oil producer and the ‘multiplier effect’of its energy power are the main factors that trigger the establishment of the OPEC + mechanism,through which Russia and Saudi Arabia regained control of the oil market,and laid a foundation for further bilateral cooperation,thus the two countries can largely offset the increasingly unfavorable geopolitical environment since the ‘Shale Revolution’. In response,the U. S.,while improving its oil production capacity,tried to divide OPEC + through political means.Finally,Russia’s withdrawal from OPEC + mechanism and the outbreak of a newoil price war showthat as the number of major oil producers increases,the interaction and conflict in this energy game inevitably increases. Saudi Arabia will have more strategic choices in the newtripolar oil supply system. Its strategic choices will become a key factor in shaping the international energy landscape.
作者
曹峰毓
CAO Fengyu(Institute of Middle Eastern Studies,Northwest University)
出处
《阿拉伯世界研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期3-22,157,共21页
Arab World Studies
