摘要
新型冠状病毒疫情全球蔓延以及各国防控措施给全球集成电路企业的正常运行带来了重大影响。本文基于官方统计、行业协会、智库、企业信息等多渠道数据,对全球集成电路市场结构及供需情况进行深入分析,研究发现:(1)集成电路产业具有产业链条超长、分布失衡、技术门槛高、上下游关联度强等技术-经济特征;(2)产业链依赖高效的跨境协同,上下游技术锁定及各环节集中垄断降低了自我调整的弹性,集成电路产业整体处于脆弱的"刃锋平衡"状态;(3)疫情冲击叠加国际防控合作机制缺失,导致集成电路产业链断裂风险大幅增加。当前形势下挑战与机遇并存,中国应当在加强国际合作的同时,积极推动国产替代,引导国内企业加紧研发,提高产品技术性能及市场竞争力。
The COVID-19 pandemic and various infection control measures have made a great impact on the regular operation of global integrated circuit companies.Based on data collected from official channels,industry associations,think tanks and enterprises,this paper performed an empirical analysis on the structure of global integrated circuit market,and studied supply and demand in the market.The results of the analyses showed that:1)The integrated circuit industry has four major techno-economic features-long industrial chain,unequally distributed,high technical threshold,and strong upstream-downstream technology relevance;2)Long industry chain relies on efficient cross-border collaboration,thus technology lock-in or any form of centralized monopoly would reduce the resilience for self-adjustment and make the industry chain in an“Knife-edge Equilibrium”state;3)The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic and lack of international prevention and control cooperation mechanism altogether,increase the risk of breaking the industrial chain.The current situation presents both challenges and opportunities to China.While strengthening international cooperation,China should actively promote domestic substitution,guide domestic enterprises to invest in research and development,and encourage them to improve technical performance and market competitiveness of their products.
作者
蔡跃洲
马晔风
牛新星
Cai Yuezhou;Ma Yefeng;Niu Xinxing
出处
《学术研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期86-93,178,共9页
Academic Research
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“新一代信息技术影响增长动力及产业结构的理论与经验研究”(71873144)
国家自然科学基金重大项目“宏观大数据建模和预测研究”(71991475)
国家社科基金重点项目“数字经济对中国经济发展的影响研究”(18AZD006)
中国社会科学院创新工程项目“新一代ICT、数据要素与数字经济”的阶段性成果。
