摘要
构建多种就业形式的动态随机一般均衡模型,分别考察正常时期与超低利率环境下以鼓励创业为目的进行的政策调整产生的长期与短期宏观经济效应,结果显示:(1)无论是正常时期还是超低利率环境下,以鼓励创业为目的进行的单项政策(即降低自主创业进入成本)调整均面临长期收益与短期成本的权衡取舍;(2)无论长期还是短期效应,正常时期以鼓励创业为目的进行的单项政策调整导致正规部门与非正规部门间工资收入差距扩大,但超低利率环境下单项政策调整则缩小了部门间工资收入差距;(3)以鼓励创业为目的进行的多项政策综合调整(包括降低自主创业进入成本及对正规部门进行的政策调整)无明显短期成本,并且无论经济处于正常时期还是超低利率环境,其产生的短期影响都显著大于单项政策调整;(4)无论是以鼓励创业为目的进行的单项政策调整还是多项政策综合调整,超低利率环境都弱化了政府鼓励创业政策的短期宏观经济效应。因此,为促进自主创业并降低政策调整产生的短期成本,政府不仅需要降低创业成本,同时还需对正规部门进行相应的政策调整。
This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of various forms of employment,examining long-term and short-term macroeconomic effects of policy adjustment aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship in normal times and in an ultra-low interest rate context.The findings are as follows:(1)whether in normal times or in an ultra-low interest rate context,a single entrepreneurship-driven policy(i.e.reducing the cost of self-employment)is faced with the trade-off between long-term benefits and short-term costs;(2)in terms of long-term or short-term effects,the single policy adjustment aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship in normal times widens the income gap between formal sectors and informal sectors,but the single policy adjustment in an ultra-low interest rate context narrows the income gap between sectors;(3)there is no obvious short-term cost in the comprehensive adjustment of multiple policies aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship(including the reduction of the cost of self-employment and the policy adjustment to the formal sector),and the short-term impact of these policies is significantly greater than that of single policy adjustment when the economy is in normal times or in an ultra-low interest rate context;(4)the ultra-low interest rate environment has reduced the short-term macroeconomic impact of the government’s policy of encouraging entrepreneurship,whether it is a single policy adjustment or a comprehensive policy adjustment aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship.Therefore,in order to promote self-employment and reduce the short-term cost of policy adjustment,the government should not only reduce the cost of starting a business,but also adjust policy for formal sectors accordingly.
作者
陈利锋
CHEN Li-feng(College of Economics,Hainan University,Haikou,Hainan,570228;Department of Economics,Guangdong Provincial Party School,Guangzhou,Guangdong,510053)
出处
《深圳大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期81-90,共10页
Journal of Shenzhen University：Humanities & Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“提高发展平衡性、包容性、可持续性的动力机制研究”(15ZDC012)。
