摘要
2019年2月,德国联邦经济部公布《德国国家工业战略2030(草案)》,首次系统性地提出具有明显保护主义倾向的产业政策设想,认为德国当前主要面临三大挑战,一是颠覆性技术威胁其经济可持续发展,二是缺乏大规模企业参与全球竞争,三是竞争成本升高增加德企国际竞争压力。有鉴于此,德国联邦经济部提出巩固工业在德国国民经济中的核心地位、加强国家对经济事务干预、推动德/欧产业政策改革等一系列建议,呈现对内加大扶持力度、放松监管,对外加强戒备、划清界限的特点。德国作为欧洲经济火车头,推动其近年来加大政府对于经济事务的干预力度、向产业政策回归的原因主要有三:一是德国传统制造业优势流失、新兴创新行业后继乏力;二是国内经济下行压力增加,大联盟政府摇摇欲坠,维持经济向好成为维护默克尔政府执政合法性的重要依赖;三是国际竞争增强德国危机意识和政策调整动力。虽然德国版产业政策能够实施以及实施中面临的问题仍存在不确定性,但推动经济政策调整、发挥政府经济作用已成为德国各界共识,随着德国前防长冯德莱恩升任欧委会主席、德法形成合力,德国将其设想进一步推行至欧盟层面的可能性提高,未来中德、中欧合作阻力或增大。
In February 2019,the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy published the German National Industrial Strategy 2030(Draft),which systematically put forward the industrial policy with obvious protectionist leaning for the first time.It argues that Germany is confronted with three major challenges at present:first,disruptive technology threatens its sustainable economic development;second,it lacks large-scale enterprises to participate in global competition;third,the rising cost of competition intensifies the pressure on its enterprises in international competition.Therefore,the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy put forward a series of recommendations,including consolidating the core status of industry in the German economy,strengthening state intervention in economic affairs and promoting the reform of German/European industrial policies,which demonstrates the tendency of increasing support and decreasing regulation internally,and strengthening vigilance and clearing boundaries externally.Germany,as the locomotive of the European economy,has promoted its government’s intervention in economic affairs and returned to industrial policy in recent years for three main reasons:first,Germany’s traditional manufacturing industry has lost its competitive edge,while the newand innovative industries lack driving forces;second,with increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy and a faltering big coalition government,maintaining the legitimacy of the Merkel administration is increasingly relying on economic growth.Third,international competition intensifies Germany’s sense of crisis and the motivations of policy adjustment.Despite that uncertainties remain about whether and howthe German version of industrial policy can be implemented,it has become a consensus among various sectors in Germany to promote economic policy adjustment and strengthen the government role in the economy.With former German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen ascending to the Chairwoman of the European Commission and the formation of a coalition between Germany and France,the possibility for Germany to further promote its vision to the EU level will increase.In the future,the China-German cooperation and the China-EU cooperation is likely to experience bigger resistance.
出处
《国别和区域研究》
2020年第1期161-181,211,212,共23页
Journal of International and Regional Studies
关键词
德国
产业政策
保护主义
新动向
实施前景
Germany
Industrial Policy
Protectionism
New Trends
Prospects for Implementation
