摘要
为有效降低深水钻井井喷事故风险,提出一种井喷事故风险控制决策定量评估方法。首先运用贝叶斯网络(BN)建立深水钻井井喷事故评估模型,根据BN网络前向和后向推理原则,确定井喷事故的主要风险因素和发生概率;然后针对导致井喷事故发生的风险因素提出5项风险控制措施,考虑执行风险决策的效用和成本,通过增加效用节点和成本节点,建立深水钻井井喷事故风险控制决策模型,定量评估31项风险决策措施的有效性和总成本。研究结果表明:执行加强人员技能培训和增加功能测试与维护决策的总成本较低,同时可将深水钻井井喷事故风险控制在可接受风险区域。
In order to reduce blowout accidents in deepwater drilling,a quantitative assessment method of risk control decision is put forward.Firstly,an assessment model for blowout accidents in deepwater drilling was established by using BN,and based on forward and backward reasoning principles of BN,major risk factors and occurrence probability were determined.Then,five risk control measures were proposed targeting at risk factors.Finally,a risk control decision model was constructed by adding utility node and cost node,and effectiveness and total cost of 31 decision-making measures were evaluated quantitatively.The results show that decision implementation of strengthening personnel skills training and increasing functional testing and maintenance costs lower,and can also help control blowout risk in an acceptable range.
作者
朱敬宇
陈国明
吕寒
孟祥坤
智晨潇
周丽晨
ZHU Jingyu;CHEN Guoming;LYU Han;MENG Xiangkun;ZHI Chenxiao;ZHOU Lichen(Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao Shandong 266580,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期113-118,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0804501.2016YFC0304005)。
