摘要
以云南省各地州市2006—2017年入境旅游规模为研究对象,利用标准差、离散系数、首位度、位序—规模分布理论揭示云南省入境旅游规模的时空分异特征,运用皮尔逊相关系数、多元线性回归法探讨引起云南省入境旅游差异性的因素及其影响程度,构建灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,测算各地州市未来6年的入境旅游规模。研究发现:(1)云南省入境旅游规模不均衡、首位分布不明显但相对差异逐年缩小、集聚垄断程度持续下降,旅游发展趋向收敛。(2)较旅游接待能力而言,旅游资源丰度是引起云南省各地州市入境旅游规模差异的主要原因。(3)云南省入境旅游发展潜力大,首位城市竞争越发激烈,西双版纳、德宏等中位城市将成为未来入境旅游规模的新增长点。对不同入境旅游发展模式的地州市提出相应建议,以期为云南省入境旅游发展提供理论参考。
This paper takes the scale of inbound tourism in Yunnan Province from 2006 to 2017 as the research object,using the theory of standard deviation,discrete coefficient,primacy degree and ranksize distribution to reveal the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of the scale of inbound tourism in Yunnan Province,using Pearson correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression method to explore the factors causing the difference of inbound tourism in Yunnan Province and the degree of influence,and constructing the grey prediction GM(1,1)model to measure the inbound tourism scale of each prefecture in the next six years.The results are as follows:(1)the scale of inbound tourism in Yunnan Province is unbalanced,the distribution of the first place is not obvious,but the relative difference is shrinking year by year,the degree of agglomeration and monopoly is declining,and the development of tourism tends to convergence.(2)compared with the capacity of tourism reception,the abundance of tourism resources is the main reason for the difference of inbound tourism scale in Yunnan Province.(3)Yunnan Province has great potential for inbound tourism development,and the competition among the first cities is more and more fierce.In the future,some middle cities will become new growth points of inbound tourism scale.It also puts forward corres ponding suggestions for different inbound tourism development modes in cities,with a view to providing a theoretical reference for the development of inbound tourism in Yunnan Province.
作者
王政
杨霞
WANG Zheng;YANG Xia(College of Mathematic and Information,China West Normal University,Nanchong 637009,China)
出处
《云南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2020年第4期93-102,共10页
Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Social Science)
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目“西部民族地区旅游业发展推进新型城镇化的动力机制研究”(14XJC790010)
西华师范大学英才科研基金项目“成渝城市群旅游业与城镇化融合发展机理与时空演化研究”(17YC131)。
关键词
入境旅游
时空分异
预测研究
inbound tourism
spatial-temporal differentiation
prediction research
