摘要
在气候变化与城市化背景下,洪涝灾害频发造成了严重经济损失和社会问题。科学的洪涝灾害风险评估是洪涝灾害风险管理的前提和需求。首先对国内外典型洪涝灾害进行介绍,用数据和实例说明洪涝灾害的影响之广与损失之巨。然后从理论和方法两个方面,对洪涝灾害风险评估国内外研究现状进行综述。重点介绍了洪涝灾害评估方法,包括:数理统计法、指标体系法、不确定性分析法和情景模拟法。情景模拟风险评估法是当前自然灾害风险评估研究的主流方向,该方法需要以暴雨洪涝模拟和洪灾损失评估为基础,后续梳理了雨洪仿真模型与损失评估模型研究进展。最后提出洪涝灾害风险评估的未来研究方向,主要有三个方面:风险评估综合指标体系的建立与评估指标权重的确定;风险评估框架的构建及模型适应性研究;区域洪涝风险演变趋势及驱动机制研究。
In the context of climate change and rapid urbanization,frequent flood and waterlogging disasters have caused serious economic losses and social problems.It is the premise as well as the requirements of risk managing to perform a scientific and reasonable risk assessment.Firstly,the typical global flood disaster events are introduced to prove the scope of impact and the scale of damage.From the perspective of theory and method,the research status of flood and waterlogging risk assessment is summarized.The four typical flood risk assessment methods include mathematical statistics method,index system method,uncertainty analysis method and scenario simulation method.The last one is the mainstream research direction of natural disaster risk assessment,which is based on inundation simulation and damage assessment.Finally,the future research directions of flood risk assessment are prospected:1)the comprehensive index system and determination of index weight;2)the framework of risk assessment and model adaptability;3)the evolution trend and driving mechanism of regional flood risk.
作者
李超超
田军仓
申若竹
LI Chaochao;TIAN Juncang;SHEN Ruozhu(College of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;Beijing Capital Co.,LTD,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期131-136,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学青年基金项目(51809143)
宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划重大项目(2018BBF02022)
宁夏自然科学基金项目(2018AAC03041)。
关键词
洪涝灾害
风险评估
情景模拟法
雨洪仿真模型
损失评估模型
flood and waterlogging disaster
risk assessment
scenario simulation method
flood simulation model
flood damage assessment model
