摘要
为了提高电力系统风险评估能力,提出基于多因素驱动的电力系统风险传递模型。构建电力系统风险的多层次参数约束模型,采用多因素特征重建的方法进行电力系统风险信息采样,构建电力系统风险评估的统计变量分析模型。以电压因素、电能质量因素和功率因素进行多因素驱动,以电力系统的输出稳定性、环境相关性的因素为约束指标,进行电力系统风险评估的统计决策模型分析,提取电力系统风险因素的模糊相关性统计特征量。采用自适应寻优算法进行多因素下的电力系统风险预测评估,根据风险的聚类分布性能,进行电力系统风险传递模型优化设计。仿真结果表明,采用该方法进行电力系统风险评估的准确性较高,风险传递达到最低,提高了电力系统风险的管控能力。
A power system risk transfer model based on multi⁃factor drive is proposed to improve the assessment capability of the power system risk.The multi⁃level parameter constraint model of the power system risk is constructed,the sampling of risk information of the power system is carried out by means of the multi⁃factor feature reconstruction method,and the statistical variable analysis model of the power system risk assessment is established.The multi⁃factor drive is conducted for the voltage factor,power quality factor and power factor,and the factors of the output stability and the environment dependency of the power system are taken as the constraint indexes,so as to perform the statistical decision model analysis of the power system risk assessment.The statistical feature quantity of the fuzzy correlation of the power system risk factor is extracted,and the adaptive optimization algorithm is used to conduct the forecast evaluation of the power system risk.The optimal design of the power system risk transfer model is performed according to the clustering distribution performance of risk.The simulation results show this method has high accuracy of power system risk assessment and minimal risk transmission,and can improve the management and control ability of the power system risk.
作者
岳俊英
李存斌
YUE Junying;LI Cunbin(North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;College of Computer Science and Technology,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,China)
出处
《现代电子技术》
北大核心
2020年第14期1-3,7,共4页
Modern Electronics Technique
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71671065)
国家电网公司科技项目(5204BB1600CP)。
关键词
电力系统
风险传递
多因素驱动
模型优化
风险评估
仿真分析
power system
risk transfer
multi⁃factor drive
model optimization
risk assessment
simulation analysis
