摘要
农民土地承包经营权退出是当前中国农村土地改革的一项重大举措,对推动农村土地适度规模化经营和城镇化进程具有重要意义。该研究根据目前国内部分试点地区的退出政策和实践,设置7种情景模式,分析了农民在不同情景下的退出决策及选择取向;此外,为进一步探讨影响农民土地承包经营权退出决策的因素,基于279份农户调查问卷,采用多元有序Logistic回归模型对情景模拟下农民对不同模式的退出决策影响因素进行实证分析。结果显示:不同情景下受访农户的退出意愿以土地承包经营权单项权利退出和长期退出(梁平模式、内江模式和成都模式)为主,而对"三权同退"或单项权利永久退出方式(平罗模式、湄潭模式和金湖模式)的接受意愿较低。农户对不同情景模式退出决策的影响因素存在较大差异,但其中预期风险程度对不同情景模式的退出决策均具有显著性影响,农户个人特征、家庭特征、资源禀赋特征以及认知特征等因素在农民行为决策中发挥着重要作用。
Urbanization in current China has brought profound changes in every phase of social life and modern agriculture.Specifically,the rural labor migration to cities and towns has posed a significant challenge on the contract management between household and cultivated land during agricultural modernization.The transfer of rural contracted land-use rights is gradually becoming a heat dispute in the basic rural management system.The stable land contract relationships need to be maintained in the countryside over the long term,while it also needs to strengthen supervision of and services related to the exit of rural contracted land-use rights for the standardized and intensive agriculture.During this time,the withdrawal rights of farmers'land contract can be a major management measure in China's rural land reform,in order to promote the moderate urbanization of rural land on a larger scale.In this study,seven exit modes in scenario simulations were established to analyze the exit decision-making of farmers under different conditions based on the exit policies that have been implemented in some typical pilot areas in the country.Survey questionnaires from 279 field farmers were made to clarify the influencing factors of farmers’exit decisions on different modes under scenario simulation.A single factor analysis was used to analyze the 16 potential influencing factors from the four feature dimensions in turn,where a Chi-square test was utilized to evaluate the significant level of the variables for the selection of the single factor analysis in the multiple order.A Logistic regression was used to reveal the factors that influence farmers'decision-making on the withdrawal of land contractual management rights.The results show that:1)Under different scenarios,the interviewed farmers have various willingness to accept the exit mode.In the exit modes that implemented in Neijiang,Sichuan and Chengdu,Sichuan,farmers expressed their willingness to accept accounted for 63.08%(Neijiang mode)and 53.05%(Chengdu mode)of the total sample.The acceptance rate of farmers was similar in Pingluo mode of 16.49%and in Meitan mode of 18.28%.There was a lowest acceptance rate of farmers in the Jinhu mode.A conservative attitude can occur in the farmers'exit decisions under various scenarios.The withdrawal decision of land tenure was mainly focused on the single-item exit and long-term exit of land contractual management rights,while the exit mode of“three rights withdrawal”was more cautious for the farms.2)The regression results show that there are various influencing factors of farmers’decision-making on exiting from different scenarios.The variable expected risk level has a significant impact on the exit decisions in the seven scenarios.If farmers feel that the expected risk level is relatively low,they are generally more inclined to withdraw from land contractual management rights.The ability of risk avoidance was stronger in other scenarios than that in the Wenjiang mode.If farmers think that they cannot afford the risk of exit completely,they usually choose not to quit the right of contract land.The type of household has a positive impact on the exit decisions in the Neijiang,Wenjiang and Chengdu modes,whereas,the quit willingness was even strong in the non-farm households.Whether there was abandonment or idleness in the contracted land has a significant impact on the Liangping,Meitan and Jinhu modes.Specifically,farmers with abandonment or idleness land were more willing to withdraw from land contractual management rights.This finding can provide policy implications for the establishment of diversified exit modes to clarify withdrawal mechanism of land contraction management right.
作者
牛海鹏
牛鹏程
肖东洋
Niu Haipeng;Niu Pengcheng;Xiao Dongyang(School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering of Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,China;Institute of Ecological Civilization and High-quality Development of Yellow River,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,China)
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第10期235-244,共10页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(18BJY126)。
关键词
农村
农户
情景模拟
土地承包经营权
影响因素
退出决策
多元有序Logistic回归模型
rural areas
peasant household
scenario simulation
land contractual management rights
influencing factors
exit decision-making
multiple ordered Logistic regression model
