摘要
该文利用2014年1月—2019年12月黔东南州国家级气象观测站和区域气象观测站的逐日降水资料,以及对应的贵州省气象台和黔东南州气象台发布的短期预报,统计分析黔东南州局地暴雨漏报过程和区域性暴雨漏报过程。结果表明:①2014年1月—2019年12月黔东南州共计出现暴雨过程299次,其中局地暴雨178次,区域性暴雨过程121次;暴雨漏报过程共计86次,漏报率为28.76%,其中,局地暴雨漏报64次,漏报率为21.4%,区域性暴雨漏报22次,漏报率为7.36%;②从时间分布来看,暴雨漏报过程发生在夏季最多,占总数的58%以上,其次是春季和夏季。从空间分布来看,黔东南州南部和中西部是暴雨漏报的高发区,而州东部地区暴雨漏报过程最少,这可能与黔东南州地形分布密切相关;③黔东南州局地暴雨漏报过程按形成原因可以分为局地地形增强型、局地热雷暴型和春季强对流单体型等3种类型;④黔东南州北部地区区域性暴雨漏报过程大多是影响系统提前南压,预报员对系统影响时间预估不足造成的;而州南部区域性暴雨漏报过程则多是由于暖式切变线北抬,因对其预估不足或低估其降雨效率导致。
Based on the daily precipitation data of national and regional meteorological observatories in southeastern Guizhou from January 2014 to December 2019,and the short-term forecast issued by Guizhou Meteorological Observatory and Qiandongnan Meteorological Observatory,this paper makes statistical analysis of the local and regional rainstorm omission processes in southeastern Guizhou.The results are as follows:①From January 2014 to December 2019,a total of 299 rainstorms occurred in Qiandongnan Prefecture,including 178 local rainstorms and 121 regional rainstorms;86 rainstorms were missed,the missed rate was 28.76%.Among them,64 local rainstorms were missed,the missed rate was 21.4%,and 22 regional rainstorms were missed.The missed rate was 7.36%.②According to the time distribution,the missed process of rainstorm occurred mostly in summer and spring,accounting for 84%of the total.From the spatial distribution point of view,the southern and western parts of southeastern Guizhou are the high-incidence areas of rainstorm omission,while the eastern part of Guizhou is the least,which may be closely related to the topographic distribution of southeastern Guizhou;③The local rainstorm omission process in southeastern Guizhou can be divided into local topographic enhancement type,local thermal thunderstorm type and spring according to the causes of formation.There are three types of seasonal convective monotype;④Most of the missed processes of regional rainstorms in the northern part of southeastern Guizhou are caused by the influence of the system's advance south pressure,and the forecaster's inadequate prediction of the system's impact time,while the missed process of regional rainstorms in the southern part of Guizhou is due to the northward rise of the warm shear line,which is inadequately or underestimated due to the underestimation of the northward rise of the shear line.It is caused by rainfall efficiency.
作者
欧阳大亮
白慧
韦波
张超
周艳
OUYANG Daliang;BAI Hui;WEI Bo;ZHANG Chao;ZHOU Yan(The Meterological Bureau of Qiandongnan Prefecture,Guizhou Province,Kaili 556000,China)
出处
《中低纬山地气象》
2020年第3期52-57,共6页
Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology
基金
中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2020-117):贵州东南部暴雨漏报过程统计特征及成因分析
贵州省气象局科研项目(黔气科登[2018]08-18号):黔东南州暖区暴雨过程的诊断分析研究。
关键词
区域自动站
暴雨漏报
局地暴雨
区域性暴雨
统计分析
regional automatic station
rainstorm missing report
local rainstorm
regional rainstorm
statistical analysis
