摘要
针对我国煤炭消费总量控制仍未分解和落实到地方层面等问题,基于大气污染物和碳排放的协同约束分析,提出了山西省煤炭消费量控制目标。目标研究采用了数据回归分析建立大气污染物和煤炭消费之间的量化关系,通过模型对未来能源消费总量和结构进行预测,并基于此进行碳减排校验。结果表明,对山西省煤炭消费总量控制最严格的情景在2020年是SO 2排放控制,在2030年是碳排放控制,协同控制情景下山西省2020年和2030年煤炭消费量控制建议目标是3.327亿t和3.068亿t.据此目标提出了控制高耗能行业发展、提高清洁煤炭利用率和减少散煤使用等建议。
In view of the problem that the total coal consumption control in China has not been decomposed and implemented at the local level,the target of coal consumption control of Shanxi province was proposed,on the basis of the synergistic constraint analysis of atmospheric pollutants and carbon emissions.The target study used data regression analysis to establish a quantitative relationship between atmospheric pollutants and coal consumption,predicted the future total energy consumption and structure through the model,and verified the carbon emission reduction.The results illustrate that the most stringent scenario for controlling total coal consumption in Shanxi province is SO 2 emission control in 2020 and carbon emission control in 2030,and the suggested target of coal consumption control in Shanxi province is 332.7 million tons in 2020 and 306.8 million tons in 2030.According to this goal,the countermeasures for the control of total coal consumption have been put forward,such as controlling the development of high energy-consuming industries,improving clean coal utilization and reducing the use of loose coal.
作者
吉红洁
王恒康
苏旭东
JI Hongjie;WANG Hengkang;SU Xudong(Department of Low Carbon Development Research,Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences in Shanxi,Taiyuan 030009,China)
出处
《太原理工大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第4期566-571,共6页
Journal of Taiyuan University of Technology
基金
自然资源保护协会(NRDC)中国项目:中国煤炭消费总量控制方案与政策研究
山西省大气污染防治专项基金:山西省煤炭消费总量控制研究。
关键词
大气污染物
碳排放
山西省
煤炭消费
air pollutants
carbon emissions
Shanxi
coal consumption
