摘要
基于1981—2016年千河流域陇县站和千阳站的逐日气温数据,选取8个可以代表流域气候特征的极端气温指数并建立时间序列,运用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和R/S分析等方法,对千河流域36 a气温趋势差异、突变情况及未来变化进行了研究与分析.结果表明:①1981—2016年,千河流域冷指数呈下降趋势,暖指数呈上升趋势,持续高温和极端高温出现的日数增多.②千河流域极端气温指数在1994年和1990年前后发生突变,暖指数突变比冷指数早.③千河流域未来极端气温指数的持续性较强,未来变暖趋势明显.
Based on the daily temperature data of Longxian station and Qianyang station in Qianhe River Basin from 1981 to 2016,eight extreme temperature indexes which can represent the climate characteristics of the Basin were selected and time series were established.By using the methods of linear regression,Mann-Kendall mutation test and R/S analysis,the trend difference,mutation and future change of temperature in Qianhe River Basin in 36a were studied and analyzed.The results show that:①From 1981 to 2016,the cold index of Qianhe River Basin showed a downward trend,the warm index showed an upward trend,and the number of days of continuous high temperature and extreme high temperature increased.②The extreme temperature index of Qianhe River Basin changed before and after 1994 and 1990,and the change of warm index was earlier than that of cold index.③The future extreme temperature index of Qianhe River Basin has a strong sustainability,and the future warming trend is obvious.
作者
张新弟
张海宁
任源鑫
周旗
ZHANG Xindi;ZHANG Haining;REN Yuanxin;ZHOU Qi(Baoji Fengjiashan Reservoir Authority,Baoji 721300,Shaanxi China;College of Geography and Environment,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,Shaanxi China)
出处
《河南科学》
2020年第6期960-965,共6页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41771215)。
