摘要
基于传播动力学及普适SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed)模型和程序Epi SIX (模型总参数只有10个),实时跟踪国家及各地卫生健康委员会(简称卫健委)自2019年12月12日以来发布的确诊数据,对新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)疫情的流行趋势进行了研判,对疾控策略的效率进行了评估,并将相应的建议提供给疾控方参考.特别地,厘清了这次疫情的流行病学基本参数,如基本再生数、平均潜伏期、平均传染期、非典型患者占比和流行趋势,包括流行时间、疫情拐点、流行规模,并分析了控制强度对传播的影响等.同时创建了一个网页来更新预测结果.
Based on the theory of the transmission dynamics and the general SEIR(susceptible-exposedinfectious-recovered/removed) model, using the software Epi SIX(involved with only 10 parameters), we study the COVID-19 epidemic courses in China. By fitting the real-time data of diagnosed cases from December 12,2019 to our model, we estimate the most important epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 such as the basic reproductive number, the mean latency/infectious period, the proportion of asymptomatic infectives, as well as the ending times, peaks and end sizes of the epidemic courses. From the very early stages of the epidemic courses,we estimate the time-dependent control efficacy and make suggestions for the policy makers. We have established a webpage for updating our predictions.
作者
黄森忠
彭志行
靳祯
Sen-zhong Huang;Zhihang Peng;Zhen Jin
出处
《中国科学：数学》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期885-898,共14页
Scientia Sinica：Mathematica
基金
南开大学冠状病毒应急专项(批准号:63201104)
国家自然科学基金(批准号:61873154和81673275)
国家科技重大专项(批准号:2017ZX10201101和2018ZX10715002)资助项目。
