摘要
近十年来,在经济转型背景下,我国人口结构变化影响着房地产市场健康平稳发展。本文利用2009-2018年中国70个大中城市面板数据,通过Hansen非动态面板回归模型,探究经济转型过程中人口结构与城市住房价格之间关系。研究结论表明:随着我国经济发展水平的提高,人口年龄结构对住房价格的正向作用呈"倒U"型走势;我国经济发展跨过第一个拐点(79851.91元/人)后,教育水平对住房价格具有正向作用;而超过第二个拐点(107456.86元/人)后,城市人口增长率将显著提高住房价格;固定资产投资对住房价格具有积极的促进作用,而中长期利率不能显著抑制住房价格上涨。基于上述研究结论,本文提出相应的政策建议。
In the past ten years,in the context of economic transformation,changes in my country’s population structure have affected the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.This paper uses panel data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2009 to 2018,and explores the relationship between population structure and urban housing prices during the economic transformation process through the Hansen non-dynamic panel regression model.The conclusion of the study shows that with the improvement of China’s economic development level,the positive effect of population age structure on housing prices has shown an"inverted U"trend;after China’s economic development crosses the first inflection point(79851.91 yuan/person),the education level It has a positive effect on housing prices;after the second inflection point(107,456.86 yuan/person),the urban population growth rate will significantly increase housing prices;fixed asset investment has a positive role in promoting housing prices,while medium-and long-term interest rates cannot be significant Suppress housing prices.Based on the above research conclusions,this article makes corresponding policy recommendations.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2020年第4期72-75,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(18YJC790065)资助。
关键词
经济转型
人口结构
住房价格
门槛效应
Economic transition
population structure
housing price
threshold effect
