摘要
电力一直是中国的重要基础产业和公用事业。电力系统负荷预测作为电力规划、投资、生产、调度和交易等工作的基础,在电力安全和经济运行中发挥着至关重要的作用。由于电力负荷增长的不确定性和非线性,因此很难对其进行准确的预测,本文针对电力负荷预测的难题,讨论基于灰色理论的两种预测模型,即单因素负荷预测与多因素负荷预测。笔者搜集了10年的社会用电数据,通过不同结构的用电量数据,分别建立基于多因素与单因素的GM(1,1)用电负荷预测模型。最后分析并对比了基于多因素与单因素的灰色模型预测误差。基于多因素与单因素的电力负荷预测结果表明,基于多因素与单因素两个模型预测平均误差均小于5%,但本文推荐使用基于多因素的负荷用电预测模型,因为其结果更为精确,最大平均误差仅为1.57%。上述研究对于完善灰色预测理论,丰富电力负荷预测手段均具有十分重要的现实意义。
Electricity has always been an important basic industry and public utilities in China. As the basis of power planning,investment,production,dispatch and transaction,power system load forecasting plays a vital role in power security and economic operation. Because of the uncertainty and non-linearity of power load growth,it is difficult to predict it accurately. Aiming at the difficult problem of power load forecasting,this paper discusses two forecasting models based on Grey theory,namely single factor load forecasting and multi-factor load forecasting. The authors collect 10 years’ social electricity consumption data and establishes GM(1,1)load forecasting model based on multi-factor and single-factor respectively through different structure of electricity consumption data. Finally,the prediction errors of grey model based on multi-factor and single-factor are analyzed and compared. The results of power load forecasting based on multi-factor and single-factor show that the average forecasting errors of the two models are less than 5%,but the multi-factor load forecasting model is recommended,because the results are more accurate and the maximum average error is only 1.57%. The above research has very important practical significance to perfect the grey forecasting theory and enrich the power load forecasting methods.
作者
宁波
邵鹏
祁鑫
王运
郭少青
张德亮
NING Bo;SHAO Peng;QI Xin;WANG Yun;GUO Shaoqing;ZHANG Deliang(State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Power Dispatch and Control Center,Yinchuan 750001,China;Beijing QU Creative Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《电子器件》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第3期511-515,共5页
Chinese Journal of Electron Devices
关键词
单因素
多因素
灰色理论
电力负荷预测
single factor
multi-factor
grey theory
electric load forecasting
