摘要
当前,中国已成为世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国,快速推进的工业化和城市化导致能源消耗总量和二氧化碳排放总量持续增长,中国二氧化碳的减排问题成为国际社会关注的焦点。现有研究大多假定经济变量之间的关系为线性形式,并采用传统线性模型研究研发投入对碳强度和二氧化碳排放的影响。实际上,受经济周期变化的影响,经济现象往往是波动变化的,从而导致经济变量之间呈现非线性关系。鉴于此,使用非参数可加回归模型可就研发投入对区域碳强度和二氧化碳排放的影响进行研究。结果表明:研发投入对东中部地区碳强度都产生一个“倒U”型的非线性影响,即研发投入降低碳强度的作用仅在后期阶段凸显出来;研发投入对西部地区碳强度非线性影响不显著。研发投入对二氧化碳排放非线性影响更为复杂,具体结果如下:研发投入对中部地区的二氧化碳产生一个“正U”型影响,即研发投入的碳减排作用仅在早期阶段表现明显;研发投入对西部地区二氧化碳排放的非线性影响呈现“倒N”型,表示在早期和后期阶段研发投入碳减排作用明显;由于西电东送和清洁能源供给快速增加带来的结构效应超过研发投入带来的技术效应,使得研发投入对东部地区二氧化碳排放的影响不显著。
China is now the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide.Moreover,rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to a continuous increase in China’s carbon emissions.Reducing carbon dioxide emissions in China has become the focus of the international community.Most existing studies assume a linear relationship between economic variables,and use traditional linear models to study the impact of R&D investment on carbon intensity and carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions.In fact,economic phenomena tend to fluctuate,due to the impact of economic cycle changes.This results in a nonlinear relationship between economic variables.In view of this,this paper uses the nonparametric additive regression model to study the impact of R&D investment on regional carbon intensity and CO2 emissions.The results show that R&D investment has an“inverted-U”nonlinear effect on the carbon intensity in the central and eastern regions,indicating that R&D investment is helpful to reduce carbon intensity in the later stage.R&D investment has no significant effect on carbon intensity in the western region.The nonlinear impact of R&D investment on CO2 emissions is more complicated.R&D investment has a“positive U”effect on CO2 emissions in the central region;that is to say,the emission reducing effect of R&D investment is only apparent in the early stage.The nonlinear effect of R&D investment on CO2 emissions in the western region is an inverted“N-shaped”mode,indicating that R&D investment has a significant emission reducing effect in the early and late stages.The structural effects brought by the rapid increase of the clean energy supply and“power transmission from west to east”exceed the technical effects brought by R&D investment;consequently,R&D investment has no significant impact on CO2 emissions in the eastern region.
作者
林伯强
徐斌
LIN Bo-qiang;XU Bin(Institute of China Energy Policy,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian;School of Statistics,Jiangxi University of Finance&Economics,Nanchang 330013,Jiangxi)
出处
《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期70-84,共15页
Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)
基金
教育部哲学社会科学发展报告资助项目(OJBG013)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国新能源产业的空间集聚、扩散及其外部性:理论机制及实证分析”(71974085)。
关键词
研发投入
二氧化碳排放
碳强度
非参数可加回归模型
R&D investment
carbon dioxide emissions
carbon intensity
nonparametric additive regression model
