摘要
文章使用合成控制法,通过对比分析中国自贸区成立前后实验地区的经济变量实际值与控制地区内经济变量的“反事实”估计值之差,评估设立自贸区是否推动了地区的经济增长。选取了中国30个省区、直辖市的月度面板数据进行分析,从经济增长、固定资产投资和进出口贸易角度对上海、广东、天津、福建、辽宁、浙江、河南、湖北、重庆、四川、陕西的经济影响进行评估。研究发现,设立自贸区整体上显著推动了地区经济增长,但对各个地区的经济影响程度存在一定的差异。
The article uses a synthetic control method to compare and analyze the difference between the actual value of the economic variable in the experimental area before and after the establishment of the China Free Trade Zone and the“counterfact”estimate of the economic variable in the control area to assess whether the establishment of the free trade zone has promoted the regional Economic Growth.Monthly panel data from 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China were selected for analysis,and Shanghai,Guangdong,Tianjin,Fujian,Liaoning,Zhejiang,Henan,Hubei,Chongqing,Sichuan and Shaanxi were analyzed from the perspective of economic growth,fixed asset investment and import and export trade Assessment of the economic impact.The study found that the establishment of a free trade zone has significantly promoted regional economic growth as a whole,but there are certain differences in the degree of economic impact on various regions.
作者
杨月涛
Yang Yuetao(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《中南财经政法大学研究生学报》
2020年第4期40-47,共8页
Journal of the Postgraduate of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
关键词
自贸区
经济增长
反事实分析
合成控制法
Free Trade Zone
Economic Growth
Counterfactual Analysis
Synthetic Control Method
