摘要
美国的亚太同盟体系一直都是美国拓展其全球战略的重要支撑。自奥巴马政府实施“重返亚太”战略以及特朗普推行“印太战略”以来,美国尤为强调同盟的重要性,将同盟视为应对中国崛起的重要“工具”。但是,美国的盟友们并没有设立和美国相同的战略目标。在中国崛起的过程中,因美国盟友间战略目标的差异,美国与同盟的关系将发生变化。本文以美韩同盟为案例,探讨在中美权力变迁的背景下,美国的同盟关系如何变化,美国的同盟管理面临着何种困难。本文运用了非对称同盟关系的分析框架,以评估大国和小国结盟时不同的收益和成本计算,论述了权力变迁时期衰退国家普遍采取的政策将如何影响其同盟关系。案例研究发现,随着中国崛起且美国加强与中国的竞争,美国结盟的成本变小,而结盟带给美国的收益则增加了;韩国在与美国结盟的过程中收益变小,成本变大;美韩同盟面临着“大国担心被抛弃—小国担心被牵连”的困境。值得强调的是,美韩同盟关系的变化是权力变迁时期的结构变化所致,且美国亚太同盟体系很可能普遍存在这种困境。
The US alliance system in the Asia-Pacific is always an important pillar of its global strategy.Since the Obama administration proposed the“Pivot to Asia”and President Trump promoted the“Indo-Pacific Strategy”,the United States has further emphasized the significance of alliances,viewing allies as important“tool”for dealing with China’s rise.However,US allies may not have the same strategic goals as the US.As China’s rise continues,US alliance relations will change due to the different strategic goals among US allies.Using the US-ROK alliance as an example,this study examines how US-ROK relations will change with the ongoing power shift between China and the United States,and the kind of problems the US is likely to face in managing its alliance system.This paper argues that as China rises and the US steps up its competition with China,South Korea will see increased costs and diminishing benefits in its alliance with the US,and that the US-ROK alliance will face the alliance dilemma of abandonment(for the major power)and entrapment(for the junior power).This paper emphasizes that changes in the US-ROK alliance are likely to be caused by structural changes occurring amid the power shift,and such alliance dilemma is likely to be common in the US alliance system in the Asia-Pacific.
作者
赵懿黑
郑华
Zhao Yihei;Zheng Hua
出处
《国际论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期35-59,156,共26页
International Forum
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“中国特色大国外交的话语构建、翻译与传播研究”(项目编号:17ZDA319)阶段性成果。
关键词
美韩同盟
同盟困境
权力变迁
印太战略
the US-ROK alliance
alliance dilemma
power shift
Indo-Pacific Strategy
