摘要
作为中国政府近些年实施的一项重要民生工程,新型农村社会养老保险究竟取得了什么样的政治效果?本文基于2012年中国家庭跟踪调查数据,利用新型农村社会养老保险养老金法定领取年龄设定的外生性,使用断点回归设计估计了新型农村社会养老保险对地方政府满意度的影响。研究结果与直觉相反,"新农保"非但没有提升民众对地方政府的评价,反而显著降低了其评价。这一结果对不同的估计方法、模型设定、带宽选择均有很强的稳健性。造成这一结果的主要原因在于,"新农保"推广阶段其保障水平较低以及推进方式伤害了家庭关系。此研究结果有助于深化对公共服务供给与政府满意度间关系的认识。
The objective of this paper is to illustrate and analysis the impact of public service supply on government satisfaction.Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS2012)and the exogeneity of the legal age of receiving new rural pension scheme(NRPS),this paper uses regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of NRPS on local government satisfaction.NRPS has not raised public evaluation on local governments,but significantly reduced such evaluation.This result is robust to different estimation methods,model setting and bandwidth selection.The main reason for this result is that the low security level and the promotion method of NRPS during its promotion stage hurts the family relationship.It should be noted that an important defect of RDD is that only local treatment effects can be estimated.RDD cannot answer whether the above results are applicable to participants under 60 years old.At the same time,due to data limitations,we cannot estimate the impact of pension on the satisfaction of the central government.In addition,whether the impact of NRPS on government satisfaction will change over time is also a topic worthy of further study.In the process of promoting NRPS,government must consider the needs of farmers,pay attention to methods and adhere to the principle of voluntariness.The contribution of this paper to the evaluation of the effect of NRPS lies in the extension of the economic and social effects concerned by the previous literature to the political effects,The contribution to the literature of government satisfaction in public management lies in that the relationship between public service supply and government satisfaction is examined from a specific major public service supply project after the endogenous problems are largely eliminated.
作者
阮荣平
郑风田
刘力
Ruan Rongping;Zheng Fengtian;Liu Li(School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing,102249,China)
出处
《公共管理学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期100-112,172,共14页
Journal of Public Management
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(17XNI007)。
关键词
新型农村社会养老保险
断点回归
政府满意度
家庭关系
公共服务
New Rural Pension Scheme
Regression Discontinuity Design
Government Satisfaction
Family Relations
Public Services
