摘要
作为国民经济发展基础的运输业衡量依赖于一套完整的资本存量数据。借助Goldsmith的PIM永续盘存法,以1987年至2018年为测算区间,基于基年资本存量、固定资产投资序列、价格指数、折旧率四个关键变量,从总量及分行业层面测算了我国运输业的资本存量,并分析了其对经济增长的弹性影响。结果表明,到2018年末全国运输业的资本存量为65318亿元;分行业看,铁路、公路、水运、航空部门的资本依次为15033亿元、38554亿元、4344亿元、4425亿元。从产出弹性影响来看,运输业资本存量与经济增长间存在长期均衡的稳定关系,其中铁路、公路及航空部门对经济增长的影响较为明显,其产出弹性分别为0.2002、0.1068和0.0867。
The measurement of transportation industry,one of the foundations of national economic development,relies on a complete set of capital stock data.With Goldsmith's PIM perpetual inventory method,and with the period from 1987 to 2018 as the calculation interval,and based on the four key variables of base year capital stock,fixed asset investment sequence,price index,and depreciation rate,this paper calculated the capital stock of China's transportation industry both as a whole and by the sub-sectors,and analyzed its impact on the elasticity of economic growth.According to the figures obtained there was long-term equilibrium between the capital stock of the transportation industry and economic growth,among which,railway,highway and aviation sectors had a more obvious impact on economic growth.
作者
唐卞
史月兰
肖伶俐
Tang Bian;Shi Yuelan;Xiao Lingli(Guilin University of Aerospace Technology,Guilin 541004;Guangxi Normal University,Guilin 541004;Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)
出处
《物流技术》
2020年第7期51-58,63,共9页
Logistics Technology
关键词
运输业
产出弹性
经济增长
永续盘存法
transportation industry
output elasticity
economic growth
perpetual inventory method
