摘要
利用黄河金三角地区1971—2015年月平均气温、月平均最高(低)气温资料,采用气候倾向率、距平及累积距平法和Mann-Kendall突变检验法,分析该地区气温变化特征、突变特点以及气温变化对农业生产的影响。结果表明,年平均气温呈显著增高趋势,气候倾向率为0.286℃/10 a;年平均最高、最低气温均呈波动增高趋势,各季平均气温也呈显著增高趋势,其中,春季增温最明显,其次是冬季,夏季增温最少;最冷月的月平均气温持续增高,最热月的月平均气温20世纪80年代较低,90年代增温明显,2010-2011年间略有下降,2011年以后再次增温;20世纪80年代是全球性气候变暖最显著的10 a,而该地区则是相对较冷的时期,年平均气温、年平均最高、最低气温都处于低值区,90年代增温明显,2011年以后气温相对稳定在较高水平。气候变暖对农业生产的影响是多方位、多尺度、多层次的,利弊并存,总的来说是负面影响大于正面影响。
Using the data of monthly mean temperature,monthly mean maximum temperature and monthly mean minimum temperature in the Golden Triangle area of the Yellow River in the past 1971-2015,the climate tendency rate,distance leveling,accumulation distance leveling and Mann-Kendall mutation test were used to analyze the characteristics of temperature change,mutation characteristics and its effects on agricultural production in this area.The results showed that the annual average temperature showed a significant warming trend,and the climate tendency was 0.286℃/10 a.Annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean minimum temperature showed a trend of fluctuating warming,the average temperature in each season also showed a significant warming trend,and the most obvious warming appeared in spring,the next was winter,the warming in summer was minimum.The average monthly temperature in the coldest month continued to increase,the monthly average temperature of the hottest month was lower in 1980 s,increased significantly in 1990 s,there was a slight decline in 2010-2011,and warmed up again after 2011.The 1980 s were the most significant decade of global warming,while the region was relatively cold,the annual average temperature and the annual average maximum(minimum)temperature were both low value in the 1980 s,there was a significant warming in 1990 s,and temperatures were relatively stable since 2011.The effects of climate warming on agricultural production were multi-dimensional,multi-scale and multi-layered,with both advantages and disadvantages.On the whole,the negative effects was greater than the positive ones.
作者
裴秀苗
王志伟
范志宣
周运丽
裴昭萌
PEI Xiumiao;WANG Zhiwei;FAN Zhixuan;ZHOU Yunli;PEI Zhaomeng(Yuncheng Meteorological Bureau of Shanxi Province,Yuncheng 044000,China;Climate Center of Shanxi Province,Taiyuan 030006,China;Yanhu Meteorological Bureau of Shanxi Province,Yuncheng 044000,China)
出处
《山西农业科学》
2020年第8期1283-1288,共6页
Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences
关键词
黄河金三角
气候变暖
突变
农业生产
影响
Golden Triangle of Yellow River
climate warming
mutation
agricultural production
effects
