摘要
基于系统动力学的不足,提出变结构系统动力学研究思路,并以内蒙古通辽市为北方农牧交错区典型案例地建立变结构系统动力学模型,模拟通辽市在传统、退还、循环、传退、传循、退循和传退循等7种农业发展路径下经济-社会-生态系统发展状态。结果表明:传统农业发展路径产业关联度低、用水效率低、水资源约束性强、生态安全隐患大,难以支撑区域可持续发展;退耕还牧发展路径虽具有缓解水资源压力、改善生态环境的效果,但经济带动效果差,区域发展难以为继;循环农业路径具有较强的产业关联性,可提高区域用水效率、降低水耗、改善生态安全格局。全面推行循环农业经济或与其组合农业发展路径,均能有效地促进通辽市经济-社会-生态系统可持续发展。
Based on the deficiencies of system dynamics,the research ideas of variable structure system dynamics are proposed.Taking Tongliao City as a typical case in the northern agro-pastoral ecotone,a variable structure system dynamics model was established to simulate the development status of Tongliao City’s economic-social-ecological system under seven agricultural development paths.The results show that it is difficult for the traditional agricultural development path to support the sustainable development of the region because of its low industrial relevancy,low water use efficiency,strong water resources restriction,and significant ecological security hazards.Although the agricultural development path of returning farmland to grazing can alleviate water resources pressure and improve ecological security,yet it is weak in driving economic development.The circular agriculture path has a high degree of industrial relevance,which can improve regional water use efficiency,reduce water consumption,and improve the ecological security pattern.The full implementation of the circular agricultural economy or its combined agricultural development path can effectively promote the sustainable development of Tongliao’s economic-social-ecological system.
作者
徐冬平
刘瑞强
薛小杰
朱记伟
XU Dongping;LIU Ruiqiang;XUE Xiaojie;ZHU Jiwei(School of Civil Engineering and Archtecture,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;State Key Laboratory of Ecological Water Conservancy in the Northwest Arid Area, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China)
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期139-145,共7页
Areal Research and Development
基金
水利部公益项目(201501031)
国家自然科学基金项目(51479160)。
关键词
变结构系统动力学
农业发展路径
北方农牧交错区
循环农业
通辽市
variable structure system dynamics
agricultural development path
northern agro-pastoral transitional zone
recycling agriculture
Tongliao City
