摘要
为降低地铁站施工风险,基于突变级数法构建风险预测模型,并加以应用。首先,通过专家调查及文献分析,将地铁站施工风险划分为周边环境、不可抗力、勘察设计、施工技术及施工管理5大类,建立风险预测指标体系;其次,基于突变级数法,结合风险控制变量个数,构建地铁站施工风险预测模型;再次,结合某地铁站工程进行实例研究,对评价指标原始数据进行处理,做归一运算,计算隶属函数值;最后,对风险进行评级并做一定修正。结果表明,该地铁站施工过程中周边环境、不可抗力、勘察设计、施工技术及施工管理5类风险分别处于Ⅱ级(风险较高)、Ⅱ级(风险较高)、Ⅱ级(风险较高)、Ⅱ级(风险较高)、Ⅲ级(风险中等),总体风险处于Ⅱ级(风险较高)。在地铁站施工过程中,风险与评价结果较为接近,处于可控范围内。研究表明,基于突变级数法的地铁站施工风险预测模型有效,能够对地铁站施工风险进行准确预测。
In order to reduce the construction risk of Metro station,the present paper has developed and established a risk prediction model based on the catastrophe progression method,which can be adopted for the construction practice. To achieve the purpose,we have,first of all,divided the construction risks of metro station into 5 categories through literature review and analysis,as well as the expertise investigation,i. e. the investigation and analysis of the surrounding environment risk,the force majeure risk,the survey design adventure,the technical force and the construction engineering management,etc. The said 13 secondary level risks can also be classified into the periphery construction risk,the underground pipeline risk and the natural disaster prevention risk,with the risk prediction index system properly founded. And, then, a construction risk prediction model of the metro station has also been managed to set up based on the investigation of the catastrophe series in combination with a series of risk control variables. After that,we have done further researches on the transfer station between Metro Line 3 and Metro Line 5 in a city based on the said model by inviting 10 experts specialized in the project to grade the probability ratio of the risk encounters and the economic and material damage loss liability to be caused by the risks. And,consequently,through the evaluation and processing of the original data of the scoring results,we have eventually calculated and worked out the risks likely to cause sacrifice based on the normalization of the membership function expenditure step by step. The risks at all levels have then been taken into account in correspondence with the sum of the membership function expenditure. And,last of all,the result of the risk rating has been reviewed and checked so as to get rid of high risk expenditures. Thus,it can be concluded that the risks of the surrounding environment,the labor force majeure,the survey and design,the construction technology and construction management can be fixed up into Grade Ⅱ (higher risk),Grade Ⅱ (higher risk),Grade Ⅱ (higher risk),Grade Ⅱ (higher risk),and Grade Ⅲ (medium risk),and the overall risks in Grade Ⅱ (higher risk),all of which proves to be consistent in and with the preliminary evaluation results. And,later,the actual process of subway station construction proves to be close to the originally predicted expected outcome in the controllable range. The research has thus indicated that the risk prediction model for the subway station construction based on catastrophe series assessment method turns out to be effective with the risk-level forecast for the subway station construction being accurate and confidential.
作者
姜安民
董彦辰
刘霁
JIANG An-min;DONG Yan-chen;LIU Ji(Department of Management Engineering,Hunan Urban Construction College,Xiangtan 411100,Hunan,China;School of Civil Engineering,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,China;School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期832-839,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(18C1254,19C0339)
湖南城建职业技术学院科学研究项目(16KTYB04)。
关键词
安全管理工程
地铁站
施工风险
预测模型
突变级数法
safety control
metro station
construction risk
prediction model
catastrophe series method
