摘要
针对垃圾总量的影响因素及预测的问题,依据深圳市2008-2018年的垃圾总量及人口数、人均GDP、社会消费品零售额、工业总产值、居民最终消费支出等指标的数据。运用多元线性回归、三次指数平滑法等方法,构建垃圾总量与其影响因子的多元线性回归模型,垃圾总量的时间序列预测模型。综合运用Matlab、Eviews等软件编程求解,验证了模型及算法的可行性和正确性,并得出了垃圾总量与其影响因子之间的关系、垃圾总量的预测结果等结论。研究成果可为政府制定垃圾的相关政策提供参考和依据。
In view of the influencing factors and prediction problems of the total amount of garbage,according to the data of the total amount of garbage and population,per capita GDP,retail sales of social consumer goods,total industrial output value,final consumption expenditure and other indicators of Shenzhen in 2008-2018,by using the methods of multiple linear regression and triple exponential smoothing,the multiple linear regression model of the total amount of garbage and its influencing factors and the time series prediction model of the total amount of garbage were constructed.The feasibility and correctness of the model and algorithm were verified by using MATLAB,Eviews and other software programs,and the relationship between the total amount of garbage and its influencing factors,and the prediction results of the total amount of garbage were obtained.The research results can provide reference and basis for the government to make relevant policies of garbage.
作者
张杰
朱家明
ZHANG Jie;ZHU Jia-ming(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)
出处
《齐鲁工业大学学报》
2020年第4期69-74,共6页
Journal of Qilu University of Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金(1808085QA15)
省级教研项目(2018jyxm1305)。
关键词
垃圾总量预测
影响因子
多元线性回归
三次指数平滑法
total waste prediction
impact factor
multiple linear regression
cubic exponential smoothing method
