摘要
制造业转型升级是我国经济高质量发展的核心动力。为分析辽宁省人口老龄化对于制造业转型升级的影响,从劳动力禀赋效应、劳动生产率效应、资本积累效应、人力资本积累效应、消费需求效应五个方面分析人口老龄化对制造业转型升级的作用机理。在此基础上,利用辽宁省时间序列数据实证分析人口老龄化对制造业转型升级的影响。结果表明,人口老龄化对辽宁省制造业转型升级具有显著正向影响,外商直接投资、对外贸易、城镇化水平和研发强度对辽宁省制造业转型升级也发挥了重要作用。可从加强顶层设计、完善社会保障体系、提高劳动力素质等方面入手,进一步促进制造业转型升级。
The transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry is the core driving force of high-quality economic development in China.In order to analyze the impact of aging population on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry in Liaoning Province,the mechanism of population aging influencing the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry is analyzed from five aspects:labor endowment effect,labor productivity effect,capital accumulation effect,human capital accumulation effect and consumption demand effect.The time series data of Liaoning Province is used accordingly to analyze the impact of aging population on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry empirically.The results show that the aging population has a significant positive impact on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry in Liaoning Province.Meanwhile,foreign direct investment,foreign trade,urbanization level and R&D intensity also play an important role in the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry in Liaoning Province.The policies such as strengthening top-level design,improving social security system and improving the quality of labor force can play the role in promoting the transformation of manufacturing industry.
作者
马强
李飒
程欣
MA Qiang;LI Sa;CHENG Xin(School of Economics and Management, Liaoning Shihua University, Fushun 113001, China)
出处
《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2020年第4期318-323,共6页
Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
辽宁省社会科学规划基金一般项目(L18BJY012)。
关键词
人口老龄化
制造业
转型升级
岭回归
实证分析
aging population
manufacturing industry
transformation and upgrading
ridge regression
empirical analysis
