摘要
基于我国港口集装箱运输发展现状以及国内外集装箱吞吐量预测研究的进展,对时间序列模型预测法、回归模型预测法与灰色模型预测法的原理进行分析比较,分别建立3种港口集装箱吞吐量的预测模型并对大连港集装箱吞吐量进行预测.结合大连港历史数据,对3种预测方法的预测结果及精度进行比较,归纳每种方法的特点与各自适合预测的港口类型.基于大连港为普通增长型港口的特点,采用回归模型与灰色模型对其未来五年的集装箱吞吐量进行预测,为相关研究人员和管理者提供参考.
Based on the development status of China’s port container transportation and the development of container throughput prediction at home and abroad,the principles of time series prediction method,regression model prediction method and grey model prediction method were analyzed and compared,and three kinds of port container throughput prediction models were established to predict the container throughput of Dalian port respectively.Combined with the historical data of Dalian port,the prediction results and accuracy of the three prediction methods were compared,and the characteristics and suitable port type for each prediction method were summarized.Based on the characteristics of Dalian port as an ordinary growth port,regression prediction method and gray prediction method were used to predict the container throughput of Dalian port in next five years,which could provide references for relevant researchers and managers.
作者
王茁
高璐
WANG Zhuo;GAO Lu(School of Traffic & Transportation, Dalian University of Science and Technology, Dalian 116052, China)
出处
《上海工程技术大学学报》
CAS
2020年第2期201-206,共6页
Journal of Shanghai University of Engineering Science
基金
大连科技学院大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目(201913207003)。
关键词
集装箱吞吐量
预测方法
大连港
container throughput
prediction method
Dalian port
