摘要
为了加强对风险的管控,探究风险事件的分类标准以及不同类型风险事件之间的转化关系,基于“隐喻”理论以及风险矩阵模型,确定风险事件分类的依据和标准,在此基础上确定风险事件分类模型。以风险事件发生的可能性和后果严重性相对大小作为分类依据,将风险事件划分为黑天鹅事件、灰犀牛事件、金丝猴事件和大白兔事件4类,并分别从风险量化视角、评估者知识量视角和时间视角对典型风险事件之间的转化关系进行了讨论。研究发现,风险量化主要从风险事件发生的可能性和后果2个方面进行,评估者知识量大小对风险事件类型判断有重要影响,风险事件发展的历程中事件的所属类型也随之不断变化。
In order to strengthen the control of risks,the classification criteria of risk events and the conversion relationship between different types of risk events were explored.Based on the metaphor theory and the risk matrix model,the basis and criteria for the classification of risk events were determined.After that,the risk events classification model was determined.The probability of the occurrence of a risk event and the relative magnitude of the consequences was regarded as the basis for classification in the model.According to the established risk event classification criteria,the risk events were divided into four categories:Black Swan Event,Gray Rhino Event,Golden Monkey Event and Big White Rabbit Event.The transformation relationship between typical risk events was discussed from the perspective of risk quantification,assessor knowledge and time.The results showed that risk quantification was mainly carried out from two aspects:the possibility and consequences of risk events;that the amount of knowledge of the assessor had an important impact on the judgment of the type of risk events;that the type of events in the development process of risk events also changed continuously.
作者
佟瑞鹏
孙大力
郭子萌
TONG Ruipeng;SUN Dali;GUO Zimeng(School of Emergency Management&Safety Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《安全》
2020年第7期8-15,共8页
Safety & Security
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(51674268)。
关键词
黑天鹅事件
灰犀牛事件
金丝猴事件
大白兔事件
隐喻理论
Black Swan Event
Gray Rhino Event
Golden Monkey Event
Big White Rabbit Event
metaphorology theory
