摘要
利用2006—2016年中国气象局(CMA)台风最佳路径数据集和珠海站的逐小时风速资料,通过线性回归方法,建立了一种基于台风中心位置、强度对珠海站风速预报的方法。结果表明:(1)珠海站周围400 km范围内年平均有4.6个台风活动,且主要集中在西南象限和东南象限;(2)台风位于西南象限时其中心风速与珠海站风速的线性关系最好,珠海站风速也最大;(3)利用2017年台风数据和珠海站实际风速数据对预报方程进行检验,其预报效果较好。
Using the 2006-2016 CMA typhoon best track datasets and hourly wind speed data from a station at Zhuhai, this work uses the method of linear regression to set up a procedure by which the wind speed at the Zhuhai station is forecast based on the location of typhoon eyes and typhoon intensity. The result is shown as follows.(1) For the annual average, there were 4.6 typhoons in the areas 400 km around the city, with the southwest and southeast quadrants having the most frequency.(2) When the typhoon was in the southwest quadrant, its center wind speed was in the best linear correlation with the Zhuhai station wind speed, which was also at the peak of its force.(3) Verified against the actual data of typhoons and wind speed in 2017 at the Zhuhai station, the forecasting equation was shown to have satisfactory forecasting result.
作者
王世强
夏冬
李韵婕
黄照亮
刘洋
王东海
WANG Shi-qiang;XIA Dong;LI Yun-jie;HUANG Zhao-liang;LIU Yang;WANG Dong-hai(Center of Public Meteorological Service for Zhuhai City,Zhuhai 519000;Meteorological Bureau of Zhuhai City,Zhuhai 519000;School of Atmospheric Science,Sun Yet-sen University,Zhuhai 519082)
出处
《广东气象》
2020年第4期32-35,39,共5页
Guangdong Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(41861164027)。
关键词
气象预报
台风
线性回归
风速预报
珠海站
weather forecast
typhoon
linear regression
wind speed forecasting
Zhuhai station
