摘要
本文基于DSGE模型的理论分析框架,对不同货币政策机制的灾情风险防御能力进行评价,并对救市措施和疫情演变进行经济模拟观测,主要得出以下结论:第一,数量型货币机制防御效果最优,但是存在滞后风险,因此,价格和数量次优组合的混合型货币政策是应对灾情的最优策略。第二,发达经济体货币机制应对灾情都存在政策工具失灵的边界约束,极端救市操作事倍功半。第三,模拟论证了我国在混合型货币机制下疫情防控的合理性,LPR新机制和定向降准等措施是应对灾情的有效措施。结合本次新冠肺炎疫情提出以下政策建议:第一,树立央行公信力,秉承灵活审慎,避免极端政策。第二,应对国际危机是复杂系统工程,政策发挥作用需要多部门合作,构建国际政策协调机制。第三,建立疫情防范的备用资金池,借鉴巨灾债模式筹集资金,发挥政府和市场的共同优势。
Based on the theoretical analysis framework of DSGE model,this paper compares the defense capabilities of different monetary mechanisms under the disaster situation,and simulates the policy implementation effectiveness of major economies and the impact of the evolution of the epidemic.In this paper,the new Keynesian framework is established,and disaster is set as exogenous factor in the model.The monetary mechanism that the central bank can choose includes price monetary mechanism,quantitative monetary mechanism and structural monetary mechanism.When analyzing the evolution of the epidemic situation and the effect of China’s rescue measures,based on the economic data of China’s real GDP,inflation rate,household consumption and money supply(M2),Bayesian estimation method is used to fit the variables in the model.The main conclusions are as followed.Firstly,the quantitative mechanism has the best defense effect,but there is a risk of delay.Therefore,the structural monetary policy with the combination of price and quantity is the best strategy to deal with the disaster.Secondly,the monetary mechanism of developed economies has the boundary restriction of policy tool in dealing with the disaster,and the extreme rescue operation is half the effort.Thirdly,the simulation demonstrates the rationality of epidemic prevention and control under the structural monetary mechanism in China.The new LPR mechanism is an effective measure to deal with the disaster.The policy suggestions of this paper are as followed.Firstly,we should establish the credibility of the central bank,uphold prudence,play the role of structural policy tools such as the new LPR mechanism,and avoid extreme policies.Secondly,coping with international crisis is a complex system engineering.To give full play to policy effect,it requires cooperation of multiple departments and the establishment of international policy coordination mechanism.Thirdly,a reserve fund pool needs to be established for epidemic prevention,using the catastrophe bonds to raise funds,and giving full play to the common advantages of the government and the market.
作者
郭栋
Guo Dong(China Development Bank)
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第8期24-34,共11页
Studies of International Finance
关键词
灾难风险
货币政策
新冠疫情
LPR新机制
Disaster Risk
Monetary Policy
Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia
New LPR Mechanism
