摘要
与金融业、信息业并列为三大生产性服务业的物流业正在全球范围内重新布局和资源整合,以对外直接投资的方式参与国际竞争,获得更宽阔的物流服务市场。考虑到国际经济环境不确定性对物流企业对外直接投资的影响,在分析东道国经济政策不确定性对物流企业对外直接投资决策作用机制的基础上,利用2007-2015年中国物流企业与《中国境外投资企业(机构)名录》的匹配数据,采用固定效应的面板负二项回归进行实证检验。结果显示,东道国经济政策不确定性水平与中国物流企业对外直接投资概率呈显著负相关关系,母国与东道国之间的双边政治关系和企业国际化投资经验正向调节这一关系。把物流企业对外直接投资动因分为同行业技能提升型、相关行业服务型、跨行业探索型、技术寻求型、工程导向型五类,采用Mlogit模型从差异性投资动因视角分析东道国经济政策不确定性对物流企业的影响。结果表明,东道国经济政策不确定性水平上升对同行业技能提升型对外直接投资的反向作用最为强烈,对技术寻求型对外直接投资的反向作用最小。最后从母国、东道国、物流企业三个层面提出政策建议。
The logistics industry,which is ranked as the three major productive service industries alongside the financial industry and the information industry,is re-arranging and integrating resources on a global scale,participating in international competition by means of foreign direct investment,in order to obtain a broader logistics service market.Taking into account the impact of the uncertainty of the international economic environment on the foreign direct investment of logistics enterprises,based on the analysis of the host country s economic policy uncertainty on the decision-making mechanism of logistics enterprises'foreign direct investment,and makes use of the merged data of China s logistics enterprises and the list of overseas investment enterprises(institutions)from 2007 to 2015,to adopt a fixed effect panel negative binomial regression for empirical test.The results show that there exists a significant negative correlation between the level of the host country s EPU and the probability of China s logistics enterprises'OFDI,and the good bilateral political relationship between the home country and the host country and enterprises international investment experience positively regulating this relationship.Furthermore,the motivation of logistics enterprises'OFDI can be divided into 5 types:skills-upgrading in the same industry,service-oriented in related industries,exploration-oriented in cross-industries,technology seeking-oriented and project contracting-oriented.Based on this,this paper uses Mlogit model to analyze the impact of EPU on logistics enterprises in the host country from the perspective of differentiated investment motivation.The results show that the increase of the uncertainty level of host country s economic policy has the strongest reverse effect on the skill-upgrading OFDI in the same industry and the smallest reverse effect on the technology-seeking OFDI.Finally,this paper puts forward suggestions from three levels:home country,host country and logistics enterprises.
作者
李敏杰
王健
王晓青
LI Min-jie;WANG Jian;WANG Xiao-qing
出处
《产经评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期119-132,共14页
Industrial Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“新时代物流业高质量发展的动力变革研究”(项目编号:18BGL018,项目负责人:王健)。
关键词
物流服务企业
对外直接投资
经济政策不确定性
投资动因
logistics enterprises
outward foreign direct investment
uncertainty of economic policy
investment motivation
