摘要
利用Topsis方法与灰色关联理论对2011-2019年我国省际碳减排强度协调水平进行综合测度,选取基尼系数、δ-收敛模型和β-收敛模型等方法分析我国碳减排非均衡发展态势,进而构建面板Tobit模型识别省际碳减排强度协调路径及影响因素。研究发现:经济结构和经济可持续竞争力两个指标其权重最高,我国省际碳减排强度整体相对差异呈“扩大—缩小”趋势,地区间相对差异是主导地区相对差异的主要来源;东部地区消费碳排放占比与产业结构、FDI和净出口碳排放占比等交互效应对省际碳减排协调度正向显著。中部地区投资碳排放占比与政府财政规模、政府财政规模与城镇化率的交互作用具有负向抑制作用。西部地区投资与政府财政规模的交互效应为负向显著,产业结构与城镇化率的交互作用具有正向促进作用。因此,应优化区域经济结构、增加产品科技含量、依靠市场手段,做好区域协调碳减排工作。
Topsis method and Grey correlation theory were used to comprehensively measure the coordination level of China's inter-provincial carbon emission reduction intensity from 2011 to 2019.Gini coefficient,delta convergence model and delta convergence model were selected to analyze the unbalanced development trend of China's carbon emission reduction intensity,and then panel Tobit model was constructed to identify the influencing factors of inter-provincial carbon emission reduction intensity coordination.The study found that:economic structure and sustainable economic competitiveness are the two indicators with the highest weight.The overall relative difference of carbon emission reduction intensity among provinces in China shows a trend of"widening-narrowing".The relative difference between regions is the main source of the relative difference between leading regions.The interaction effects of the proportion of consumption carbon emissions and industrial structure,FDI and net export carbon emissions in the eastern region are positively significant for the coordination degree of inter-provincial carbon emission reduction.The interaction between the proportion of investment carbon emission and the scale of government finance and the urbanization rate in the central region has a negative inhibitory effect.In western China,the interaction between investment and government financial scale is negative and significant,and the interaction between industrial structure and urbanization rate is positive.Therefore,we should optimize the regional economic structure,increase the content of product science and technology,rely on market means,and do a good job in regional coordination of carbon emission reduction.
作者
谭灵芝
姜晓群
Tan Lingzhi;Jiang Xiaoqun(Center for Population Development and Policy Research,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;School of Environment,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《河北经贸大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第5期58-71,共14页
Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国分省经济发展方式转变与产业、人口、教育、就业和迁移政策仿真模型及技术支撑平台构建研究”(13&ZD156)。
关键词
区域协调
碳减排强度
低碳经济
产业结构
城镇化率
regional coordination
carbon emission reduction intensity
low-carbon economy
industrial structure
urbanization rate
