摘要
利用五道梁气象观测站1961-2019年年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温及年降水资料,采用气候倾向率、滑动t检验以及M-K突变检验的方法,分析近59a五道梁气候变化趋势及突变年份,结果表明:近59a来,五道梁年平均气温、最高气温和最低气温均呈极显著的增温趋势,均通过了0.001的显著性检验,其中年最低气温增温最快;四季最低气温的增温率均高于平均气温和最高气温的增温率,以冬季增温最为明显,冬季增温对年平均气温增高贡献率最大;年代际变化中60年代均处于历史最低值,最低温度是历史温度升温最快的一项;最高温度在1991年和1993年发生了明显的突变近59a的年降水量呈增加趋势;春季和夏季降水增加最显著,预计未来五道梁地区春、夏季降水仍将有所增加,需引起重视;年代际中进入21世纪降水量增加幅度明显加大,日益增多的降水对五道梁地区的牧草提供了有利的生长条件;年降水在2002年和2005年发生了突变。
Using the data of mean temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature and annual precipitation from 1961 to 2019 of Wudaoliang Meteorological Observatory,the climate tendency rate,sliding t test and M-K mutation test were used to analyze the climate change trend and mutation year of nearly 59 a.The lowest annual temperature increases the temperature of the four seasons,which is higher than that of the average temperature and the highest temperature.The highest temperature increases in winter,and the highest contribution rate to the annual mean temperature increases in winter.Annual precipitation in the last 59 a showed an increasing trend;spring and summer precipitation increased most significantly,and it is expected that the spring and summer precipitation in the last five beams area will still increase,which needs to be paid attention to;the increase in precipitation in the 21 st century in the middle of the decade has obviously increased,and the increasing precipitation has provided favorable growth conditions for forage in the five beams area;and the annual precipitation has mutated in 2002 and 2005.
作者
吴双桂
韩廷芳
张德琴
李积芳
WU Shuang-gui(Qinghai Province Meteorological Bureau of Golmud City,Geermu Qinghai 816099,China)
出处
《青海草业》
2020年第3期48-52,58,共6页
Qinghai Prataculture
关键词
气温
降水量
变化特征
五道梁
Temperature
Precipitation
Variation characteristics
Wudaoliang
