摘要
为研究黄家湾输水工程范围内风资源的变化特性,采用重标度级差分析法,计算得到其参证站—紫云气象站近5年均值风速时间序列的Hurst指数为0.754,表明该风速时序自身具有长程正相关性。在此基础上,采用概率场景缩减法,提取3个全年的典型风速场景及其概率。结果表明:场景1为"小幅下降型",整个序列未出现较大起伏,其发生的概率为29.1%;场景2为"剧烈上升型",前期变化趋势与场景1较为相似,16点左右风速值大幅升降,最后震荡下行,发生的概率为31.4%;场景3为"逐步上升型",此场景发生的概率最大,为39.5%,表明在紫云气象站近5年的均值风速序列中,与此场景相似的序列较多。分析结果可为输水工程风光互补供电提供参考依据。
In order to study the change characteristics of wind resources within the scope of the Huangjiawan Water Conveyance Project, we will use the rescaled difference analysis method. The Hurst index of the reference station-Ziyun Meteorological Station’s average wind speed time series for the past 5 years is calculated to be 0.754. The wind speed sequence itself has a long-range positive correlation. On this basis, the probability scene reduction method is used to extract 3 typical wind speed scenes and their probabilities throughout the year. The results show that: Scene 1 is a "slight decline type", the entire sequence does not appear large ups and downs, and the probability of its occurrence is 29.1%.Scene 2 is a "severe increase type", the previous change trend is similar to that of Scene 1, and the wind speed is around 16:00. The value rises and falls sharply, and finally oscillates down, with a probability of 31.4%. Scene 3 is a"gradual rise"type, and the probability of this scenario is the largest, at 39.5%, indicating that in the average wind speed series of the Ziyun Meteorological Station in the past five years. There are many sequences similar to this scene. The analysis results can provide a reference for wind-solar complementary power supply for water transmission projects.
作者
刘颖
杨周
周成
金黎明
Liu Ying;Yang Zhou;Zhou Cheng;Jin Liming(Guizhou Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 563000,Guizhou;Guizhou Water Conservancy Investment(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 563000,Guizhou)
出处
《陕西水利》
2020年第9期252-255,共4页
Shaanxi Water Resources
基金
贵州省水利科技项目《风光互补自供电智能测控系统在输水工程中的应用研究》科研课题(KT201910)。
