摘要
中美贸易关系在特朗普上台后显得愈发紧张,新一轮大国博弈中,人民币汇率依旧是双方争论的焦点,然而人民币贬值对于贸易差额的影响还应考虑到马歇尔~勒纳条件的变化。本文基于2005.7~2017.12月度数据,结合理论政策机理分析并基于传统定义法点弹性、贸易平衡方程弧弹性以及改进的推算法点弹性测算了马歇尔-勒纳条件,运用Bayesian-VAR模型实证检验了特朗普政策对中美双边马歇尔-勒纳条件造成的影响,结果发现:(1)中美双边马歇尔-勒纳条件成立。(2)特朗普退出TPP和减少国内企业税赋的政策对马歇尔-勒纳条件有正向冲击作用,而加强中国对美投资监管对马歇尔-勒纳条件值有负向冲击作用。在稳健性检验中,退出TPP和投资监管政策依然有效。(3)特朗普政策对我国马歇尔-勒纳条件短期具有改善作用,在此条件下人民币汇率短期贬值有利于促进贸易顺差,长期内不具有可持续性。中国近期大力推行的“对等,开放”贸易方针对改善经常项目、提振经济基本面、维持汇率长期稳定具有有效性。
Sino-US trade relations have become more and more tense after Trump took office.In the new round of great power game,the RMB exchange rate remains the focus of debate between the two sides.However,the impact of the depreciation of the RMB on the trade balance should also take into account the changes in Marshall-Lerner condition.Based on the traditional definition of the point elasticity,the trade balance equation arc elasticity and the improved point elasticity,and combining the theoretical policy mechanism analysis,this paper calculates the Marshall-Lerner condition.Using the monthly data of 2005.7~2017.12 and the Bayesian-VAR model,we empirically test the impact of the trump’s policies on the bilateral Marshall-Lerner condition between China and the United States.The results find that:(1)Sino-US bilateral Marshall-Lerner condition is established.(2)Trump’s policies of withdrawing from TPP and reducing domestic corporate taxation have a positive impact on Marshall-Lerner condition,while strengthening China’s investment regulation over the US has a negative impact on Marshall-Lerner condition.In the robustness test,withdrawing from TPP and investment supervision policies are still valid.(3)The Trump policies have a short-term improvement effect on China’s Marshall-Lerner condition.Under this condition,the short-term depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to promoting trade surplus but is not sustainable in the long run.The“fair and open”trade policy,which is vigorously promoted by China recently,will effectively improve current accounts,boost economic fundamentals,and maintain long-term stability of the exchange rate.
作者
郭榕
王昱
翟辛遥
邱涌钦
GUO Rong;WANG Yu;ZHAI Xin-yao;QIU Yong-qin(School of Business, Dalian University of Technology , Panjin 124221, China)
出处
《运筹与管理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第9期139-148,共10页
Operations Research and Management Science
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(19CJL032)。
