摘要
针对CTCS-3级列控系统设备剩余寿命受不确定因素影响难以预测的问题,提出一种基于风险指数的预测方法。首先,构建基于模糊AHP-DEMATEL法的CTCS-3级列控系统设备风险指数模型,对其设备进行风险状态评估,评估值即为风险指数RI;其次,通过建立RI的随机模糊分布函数和曲线图,确定了RI与设备运行时间的关系;在此基础上,建立了基于不确定理论的CTCS-3级列控系统设备剩余寿命预测模型;最后,采用随机模糊模拟技术对该模型进行求解。实例验证表明,基于风险指数的CTCS-3级列控系统设备剩余寿命预测方法,可以有效地预测其寿命和剩余寿命,为设备的优先维护提供理论依据。
In view of the difficult prediction due to uncertain factors in the remaining useful life of the CTCS-3 train control system,a prediction method based on risk index was proposed.Firstly,the risk index model of the CTCS-3 train control system based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and laboratory decision method(AHP-DEMATEL)was established to assess the risk status of its equipment,with the assessment value as the risk index RI.Secondly,the relationship between RI and equipment running time was determined by establishing RI random fuzzy distribution function and curve graph.Based on which,the remaining useful life prediction model of the CTCS-3 train control system based on uncertainty theory was established.Finally,the random-fuzzy simulation technology was proposed to solve the model.The results show that the remaining useful life prediction method of the CTCS-3 train control system based on risk index can effectively predict its life and remaining useful life,which provides theoretical basis for the priority maintenance of equipment.
作者
王瑞峰
姚军娟
WANG Ruifeng;YAO Junjuan(School of Automation&Electrical Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第9期85-91,共7页
Journal of the China Railway Society
