摘要
面对美国发动的贸易战,以及特朗普政府多变的外交政策,我国经济表现出了较强的韧性,即便如此,准确全面评估国际贸易对我国长期经济增长的影响大小及机制,以便政府采取针对性的政策具有重要意义。利用《中国城市统计年鉴》和《中国统计年鉴》等我国地级市层面2004-2017年的数据,在SYS-GMM估计方法的框架下,文章实证检验了国际贸易对我国地区经济增长率的影响及相应机制。分析结果显示:国际贸易对我国经济增长率的影响为正,约为5.8%;这种影响会随着时间的推移显著增强;东部地区经济增长率所受影响小于西部地区,中部地区影响最大。进一步的机制分解表明,国际贸易对经济增长的促进作用在技术水平、人力资本和就业三个方面表现出较为明显的异质性,对产业结构的影响呈"U"型的先下降后上升态势。
In the face of the trade war launched by the United States and the capricious foreign policy of the Trump administration,China’s economy has shown strong resilience. Even so,it is of great significance to accurately and comprehensively assess the impact of international trade on China’s long-term economic growth and its mechanism,so that the government can adopt targeted policies. Using China city statistical yearbook and China statistical yearbook data from 2004 to 2017 in our country,in the framework of SYS-GMM estimation method,this paper empirically study the impact on regional economic growth of our country by international trade and the corresponding mechanism,the analysis results show: the influence of the international trade of our country economic growth is positive,about 5. 8%;This effect increases significantly over time;The economic growth rate of the eastern region is affected less than that of the western region,while the central region is mostly affected. The further mechanism decomposition shows that the promoting effect of international trade on economic growth shows obvious heterogeneity in three aspects: technology level,human capital and employment,and the influence on industrial structure shows a U-shaped trend of decline and then rise.
作者
彭刚
张文铖
李光武
Peng Gang;Zhang Wencheng;Li Guangwu
出处
《经济问题探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第10期158-169,共12页
Inquiry Into Economic Issues
基金
2017年度教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“欧洲经济一体化的新动向与中欧经贸合作研究”(17JJDGJW012),项目负责人:彭刚
中国人民大学2019年度“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”项目,项目负责人:张文铖
关键词
国际贸易
经济增长率
动态面板
International trade
Economic growth rate
Dynamic panel
